The North Texas Mean Green and Wisconsin Badgers each pulled road upsets in defeating the No. 1 seeded team in their pods in the NIT quarterfinals and now meet with a berth in the NIT Championship Game on the line. Read on for our North Texas vs. Wisconsin prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
North Texas (29-7, 16-4 C-USA) has won 14 of 16 games entering this NIT semifinal matchup. The Mean Green's biggest non-conference win was a two-point victory over Grand Canyon, which won the WAC tournament and earned a No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament. North Texas also beat a UAB team that is still alive in the NIT twice in the regular season.
Wisconsin (20-14, 9-11 Big Ten) is in its first NIT since 1996 after being a fixture in the NCAA Tournament for much of this century. The Badgers' current three-game winning streak is their longest since winning six consecutive gam es from Dec. 3 to Jan. 3, which included three wins over conference opponents.
Here is our best North Texas vs. Wisconsin prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
North Texas vs. Wisconsin odds
North Texas vs. Wisconsin prediction
North Texas is 4-0 in games decided by three points or fewer and 3-0 in overtime games, so it should be comfortable in a game with a low -1.5 point spread. However, Wisconsin has also played in its share of close games (the Badgers are 6-6 in games decided by three or fewer points), which has us finding more value in the total than the point spread.
North Texas plays at D-I's slowest tempo and spends an average of 21.3 seconds on offense per possession. Greg Gard's Wisconsin squad will likely oblige in that slow pace, ran king 341st in adjusted tempo and 349th in average offensive possession length. However, while the reputation is that both of these teams look to grind out games in half-court settings, oddsmakers continue to set their projected totals too low, as the Over is a combined 7-3 in each of these teams' previous five games. Just six of Wisconsin's last 34 and 12 of North Texas' last 36 games have seen fewer than 115 points scored, and the Over has cashed in each of the Mean Green's previous four games following a straight up win.
College basketball teams rarely get a week to prepare for games, but the Badgers tend to play higher-scoring games after long layoffs. The Over is 21-7 (75%) in Wisconsin's last 28 games dating back to 2020 when it has four-plus days off, which suggests that Gard finds ways to beat opposing defenses amid long layoffs. That is what we expect to happen in this game, and we're making this a thr ee-star play, given that the Badgers have scored 75 or more points in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents, including a 72.3 points per game average through three NIT games.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
North Texas vs. Wisconsin best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 114.5 | 115.5 | 115 | N/A |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | N/A |
There are three different totals among four of the top sportsbooks, so bettors wagering on the total can find great value depending on which side they're wagering on. The total dropping to 114.5 at FanDuel does not worry us, as we were comfortable playing this Over at 115 or 115.5, but now will cash this bet instead of push or lose at 115 (or higher).
North Texas vs. Wisconsin odds analysis
North Texas opened as consensus 1.5-point favorites, which is where it is currently among all major sportsbooks. The Mean Green dropped as low as -0.5 at FanDuel last Thursday, but bettors weighed in heavily on the favorites at that lower number. The line has remained frozen at -1.5 for the better part of four days despite 64% of the wagers backing the underdogs.
The consensus Over/Under opened at 115.5, and any line movem ent since then has gone in the direction of the Under. This is a case of reverse line movement, as 63% of bets have backed the Over.
North Texas vs. Wisconsin game info
- Date: Tuesday, March 28, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
North Texas-Wisconsin pick made 3/27/2023 at 6:21 a.m. ET.
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