NFL Wild Card playoff trends
The end of the NFL regular season is always bittersweet, as we know the majority of our football season is over, yet, we still have the highest stakes games ahead of us. Over the last six years for VSiN, I have made it a routine to dedicate my NFL feature articles at this time of year to covering each and every round and game in-depth, focusing on past trends and systems that have developed, all for the purposes of cashing tickets.
Once again, we have 14 teams still alive in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. The Wild Card round will eliminate six of them. As usual, there are some favorites in the betting markets, but in both conferences, it seems like a two/three horse race to make it to Las Vegas in February. Theoretically, the advantages would go to San Francisco in the NFC and Baltimore in the AFC, as those two teams claimed the all-important #1 seeds and will be the only teams that need not worry about what transpires this weekend. Their playoff pushes begin next weekend. However, considering that last year was the first time since 2018 that both #1’s reached the title game, there is obviously a lot to sort out over the next few weeks.
How tough can this playoff-betting exercise be if you just bet blindly on recent trends? Well, consider that all road teams were on a 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS run in the Wild Card round heading into the 2022 games. As luck would have it, the hosts enjoyed their best WC weekend in five years, going 5-1 SU and ATS. However, road teams would get their revenge in 2023, going 4-2 ATS. If you prefer betting totals, you may want to consider that Under was 16-8 in the prior five years to 2023, only to see Over hit in five of six games. Simply put, blindly playing anything usually doesn’t have lasting success.
My own handicapping methods have changed throughout these years as well, as it seems that lately, how a team is playing seems to have taken on more and more importance. That doesn’t mean it’s an end-all factor, but it is one area I consider significantly. That line of thinking would bode well for Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and the Rams for this weekend, as those are the only NFL teams riding winning streaks of three games or more currently.
For those wondering, only one Wild Card team over the last 10 seasons has played in (and won) the Super Bowl game, and that team, of course, was Tampa Bay three years ago, as the Bucs started their run on this weekend as a #5 seed. Most experts would point to Miami or Philadelphia as the teams capable of emerging from a Wild Card spot this season, but at 18-1 odds to win the title, both teams are still clear long shots.
At this point, as we begin mass regurgitation of trends, I like to caution people heading into this weekend that, if any round of the playoffs is truly wild and unpredictable, it is fittingly the “Wild Card” round.
General Wild Card Playoff ATS Trends
- The outright winner owns a point spread record of 58-9-1 ATS (86.6%) in the last 68 Wild Card playoff games! Win-no covers are rare, so regardless of the point spread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting on winning the game, you’re better off not trying to sneak a cover in. It should be noted, however, that since the expansion of the Wild Card playoffs in 2021, the outright winner in games with lines of seven points or more has gone just 4-4 ATS.
- As noted earlier, road teams seem to have definitively regained the edge in this round in recent years, going 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) over the last six seasons.
- Underdogs are on a run of 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) in the last 23 NFC Wild Card games but were 1-2 ATS in each of the last two years.
- Wild Card road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 17 in the last 15 seasons. Those teams are 11-6 SU and 8-8-1 ATS (50%). For 2024, we should see two, with the Browns and Eagles showing as short favorites in their respective road games.
- Home favorites of a TD or more in the Wild Card round are 18-2 SU & 14-6 ATS (70%) since 2005, with San Francisco winning easily as such last January, but Buffalo and Cincinnati winning but failing to cover.
- If you consider lines of 9.5 points or more, Wild Card favored hosts this large have now won 14 straight games outright while going 13-1 ATS (92.9%)! The average score of the 14 games has been 32.6-15.8. The lone ATS loss did occur last year, however, as Buffalo (-15) survived Miami 34-31. The Bills are expected to close as favorites this big again, as they are listed as 10-point favorites at home over Pittsburgh.
- There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the last 35 Saturday games, home teams are 22-13 SU and 21-13-1 ATS (61.8%). In that same span, home teams are 17-20 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) on Sundays. If you’re curious, hosts in the two prior Monday night games are 1-1 SU and ATS, with favorites sweeping the pair of games.
- Including a win last year, Sunday NFC road teams have been terrific, going 14-9 SU and 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%) in the last 23. Under the total is also 17-6 (73.9%) in those games, although the Vikings-Giants 2023 clash did go Over. The Packers-Cowboys and Rams-Lions games will test both of these angles.
- In the 14 Wild Card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, road teams own a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) edge (8-10 SU), however, hosts are on a four-game outright winning streak. There are no such matchups for 2024.
Wild Card Trends by Seed Number
- #4 seeds are on a 20-14 SU and 20-12-2 ATS (62.5%) run over the last 17 Wild Card seasons. This year’s #4 seeds are Houston in the AFC and Tampa Bay in the NFC.
- Prior to 2021’s expanded bracket, Under the total had gone 15-0-1 over the prior eight seasons in the #3-#6 matchups. The games of the last three years have gone 5-1 Over. For the record, the road teams are also on a 9-3 SU and 10-1 ATS surge in the series. The #3-#6 matchups for 2023 are LA Rams-Detroit and Miami-Kansas City.
- Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the #4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 11-7 SU and 12-6 ATS over the last 18 seasons. This includes Jacksonville’s 31-30 upset win over LA Chargers last year. Houston is the #4 in the AFC for 2024.
- #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3.5-point favorite have lost 12 straight games outright and are 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS since 2004, scoring just 16.7 PPG in the process. This includes a loss by Minnesota last season. Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite as of press time over the Rams.
- In the three expanded playoff seasons, we’ve yet to see a #7 upset a #2, as the #2 seeds are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the matchup, including 3-0 SU and ATS in the NFC. Over has also gone 4-2 on totals.
Wild Card Trends regarding Totals
- Over has dominated on totals since the playoff expansion three years ago, going 11-7.
- The common pattern in the last 12 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 23-7-2 (76.7%)! Home teams scored just 15.8 PPG in those road wins. This includes Dallas’ 31-14 win at Tampa Bay last year.
- Of the last 40 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 26-13-1 (66.7%). However, four of the five went Over last year.
- Those Wild Card games with totals less than 44 are 10-8 Over in the last 18. Seven of the last 10 Wild Card games with closing totals of 40 or below went Over the total, including Cincinnati-Baltimore last season.
- Of the last 37 Sunday Wild Card games, 25 have gone Under the total (67.5%). Of the 30 Saturday games, Over the total is 18-14-1 (56.3%). Both prior MNF playoff contests went Under the total.
- In games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a run of 18-9-1 (66.7%).
Follow the Line Moves
Bettors have been right on sides at a rate of 34-21 SU and 29-25-1 ATS in the last 55 Wild Card playoff games that moved off their opening number, good for 53.7% ATS. This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that bettors are favoring the road team. However, this success rate has dropped dramatically over the last two expanded playoff seasons, with bettors going just 4-10 ATS, so we could be witnessing a shift in this strategy, perhaps from the books themselves. For 2024, early action was favoring Cleveland, Kansas City, and Philadelphia.
About equally advantageous, bettors have fared well on totals in Wild Card games. Over the last 15 Wild Card playoff seasons, bettors are 30-21 (58.8%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. For this weekend, the totals were fairly stable early, but there was some upward movement on the Cleveland-Houston, and Green Bay-Dallas games, and consensus downward movement in the Miami-Kansas City and Pittsburgh-Buffalo contests, although those latter two games are expected to be impacted by winter weather.
First-time playoff quarterbacks
From my annual quarterback, there is a definitive playoff angle regarding quarterback inexperience
- Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL have gone just 10-21 SU and 12-19 ATS (18.7%) since 2014, and 25-45 ATS (35.7%) since 2003
There was an inordinate amount of first-time playoff starters in the 2023 wild card round, seven in fact, including two games in which first-timers squared off against one another. Perhaps because of the high volume, they were more successful than usual, going 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS. Consider this as you handicap the chances for first-time playoff quarterbacks like CJ Stroud (Houston), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami), Mason Rudolph (Pittsburgh), and Jordan Love (Green Bay). All four are underdogs in their respective games. As such, if you consider first-time playoff QB in a certain line range:
- Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 7-24 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) since 2006.
As I mentioned, all four of this year’s first-time QBs are underdogs to experienced guys. When these first-timers are matched against an experienced quarterback:
- Quarterbacks in their first playoff game are just 18-42 SU and 20-39-1 ATS (33.9%) since 2004 when matched up against an opposing QB not in their first playoff game.
The biggest difference where this experience factor comes into play is in games with point spreads in the +3 to -3 range, as these first time QBs are just 6-21 SU and 5-21-1 ATS (19.2%) in those games. However, Daniel Jones and the Giants did beat Kirk Cousins and the Vikings a year ago.
First-time head coaches
- Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks and are currently on an 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS (64.3%) run over the last five seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.