Houston hosts Cleveland on Wild Card Weekend following an exhilarating Week 18 battle for the AFC South crown, and we're offering our top Browns vs. Texans player props based on the best NFL odds.
If you've ventured into NFL Twitter once within the last decade, you surely know all about the “Joe Flacco is elite” memes. Well, he'll once again have a chance to prove those jokes are a reality when he and the Cleveland Browns travel to Houston to take on the Texans in the first showdown of Wild Card Weekend.
Flacco certainly looked the part of an elite quarterback in the Browns' Week 16 win over the Texans. He racked up an absurd 368 passing yards on 27 completions, throwing three touchdowns in the victory.
With a trip to the AFC Divisional Round on the line, can Flacco replicate that success? Or will the Browns opt for a more conservative approach in the postseas on?
As part of all of our NFL predictions and to accompany our Browns vs. Texans prediction, here are our best Browns vs. Texans NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Browns vs. Texans NFL player props: Wild Card Weekend
You're going to notice a trend with these three player props.
The projections are telling us that the Browns will opt to slow this contest down with the running game rather than let Flacco sling the ball all around the field like he did in Week 16. Cleveland would be wise to do so, as that win was aided by Amari Cooper putting on an all-time performance, which helped people forget that Flacco also threw two interceptions in the game.
Among our best sports betting apps, FanDuel is giving Flacco the most respect with its passing yards line of 275.5. In comparison, bet365 is down at 269.5, DraftKings and BetMGM are at 270.5, and Caesars is at 272.5.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, has Flacco's total set at 270.5, with the Under priced at -118.
Across five projection models, Flacco's average passing yards projection is 263.08. Based on that number, we're getting nearly 19% positive expected value on this bet. Between the value and this somewhat rogue line, this is a four-star play that I personally bet immediately upon finding.
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Sticking with fading Flacco, we're also taking the Under on his passing completions total.
You know the narrative, so we'll get straig ht into the numbers. Flacco's average passing completions total across those same five projection models is 21.75, more than two completions less than what he'd require to go Over on this prop.
When we run that projection against BetRivers' -113 odds on Under 23.5, we're getting roughly 21% +EV on this bet.
In comparison, Pinnacle's Under on the same line is juiced to -130 after opening at -115. That tells us there's been relatively significant sharp action on the Under.
Once again, as a result of the value relative to both the projection and the odds found at our other best sports betting sites, this is a four-star play at BetRivers.
I want to note, though, that some may jump to parlay these first two bets. I'd opt against that and suggest betting both as singles. A positive correlation between the two props will likely shorten the odds for your SGP to the po int that it's not worth it, and Flacco can still eclipse one number while going Under the other.
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If you checked out our Browns vs. Texans prediction, you'll see I recommended Jerome Ford Over 41.5 rushing yards. Well, the data tells us there's also value in his rushing attempts Over.
I don't love it quite as much as the Flacco plays, which you'll notice by it receiving one fewer star, but it's still a solid bet.
Ford's average rushing attempts projection across our five trusted models is 12.5, which is showing exactly 5% +EV on Over 11.5 at Fanduel's -130 odds.
I preferred his rushing yards Over 41.5 at FanDuel on Wednesday, which showed roughly 12% +EV, but that number is now gone, with the lowest total being 42.5. Therefor e, if you missed that, this is a solid prop to pivot to.
As you can see from all three plays, the data and sharp bettors agree that this game will play out differently than the Week 16 affair. Make sure to use our exclusive FanDuel promo code for two of them, and get solid value before the public catches up and our best sportsbooks move these numbers!
Browns-Texans player props made Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
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