The NFL playoffs commence with six games played from Saturday through Monday, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for Wild Card weekend based on the best NFL odds.
There are plenty of intriguing storylines among the six playoff matchups this weekend.
We have “revenge game” factors at play when Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill make their first trips back to Detroit and Kansas City, respectively, and when Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy coaches against his former team, the Green Bay Packers.
We also have games with high intrigue, such as the quarterback battle in the matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans, as veteran and former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco battles likely Offensive Rookie of the Year odds frontrunner C.J. Stroud.
To accompany our NFL Wi ld Card Weekend predictions, here are our NFL player props, best bets, and NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Wild Card Weekend
- Joe Flacco Under 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Texans (-119 via Caesars) ????
- Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown scorer vs. Rams (+120 via bet365) ???
- Chiefs/Bills moneyline parlay (-125 via BetRivers) ????
- Packers +7.5 vs. Cowboys (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ???
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Wild Card Weekend NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (-10)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend
In five starts with the Browns this season, Joe Flacco is 4-1, with 13 touchdown passes and four 300-yard games in that span. Arguably, his best game in that span was a 36-22 win against the Texans in Week 16, where he threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns with a season-high 87.9 QBR. However, despite his instant success and being one win away from setting the record for most road playoff victories in a career, DraftKings is reporting that the public is fading Flacco as their most popular pick for various props. We agree that this will be his first game in a Browns uniform where he does not throw for multiple touchdowns.
In the first meeting against the Texans, Flacco faced man coverage on 26% of the plays and averaged 14.2 yards per attempt with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio and a 99.8 Total QBR. He faced zone coverage 74% of the time and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt with a 0-2 TD-INT ratio and a 72.7 Total QBR.
Overall, Flacco has a 77 QBR against man coverage this season and a 34 QBR against zone, and we expect a heavy dose of zone coverage from the Texans will be the reason for Flacco's worst game statistically so far this season.
The Under is juiced as high as -130 at FanDuel, so we are getting great value by using our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000.
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The Detroit Lions are field-goal favorites in a game with the highest projected total of the weekend (O/U 51.5). They will likely need to score points when facing a Los Angeles Rams offense that ranked second in the NFL in points per game (31.3) from Weeks 12-17 (we excluded Week 18 because the Rams rested starters). Given that DraftKings set Detroit's team total number of touchdowns at O/U 3.5, we expect the Lions to find the endzone plenty. Amon-Ra St. Brown could be the biggest beneficiary of tight end Sam LaPorta's knee injury last week.
St. Brown has averaged 25.5 fantasy points per game from the start of Week 15, largely because of his 30% target share and 36% air yard share in that span. He has eight or more targets in five consecutive games and a touchdown catch in four straight.
This is a three-star play, as no other Lions receiver or tight end outside of LaPorta has seen higher than 18% of targets per route run or has higher than an 11% target share. Thus, we expect St. Brown to be force-fed in this matchup, and this would switch to a more confident four-star play if LaPorta is ruled out, as he set the rookie single-season record for receptions by a tight end (86). & nbsp;
The +120 value for St. Brown to find the endzone at bet365 is excellent, considering BetRivers charges as high as -141 odds for this wager.
NFL game picks for Wild Card Weekend
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have met twice in the playoffs in the last three years, and a third meeting is guaranteed if each wins their game this weekend.
Kansas City faces a Miami Dolphins squad that went 1-5 against teams that finished over .500 this season and averaged 17.7 points per game while allowing 32.8 points per game in those matchups, good for a -91 point differential. Thus, Miami will face a considerable step up in class compared to the teams with losing records that it went 10-1 against this season. QB Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a game where he was off-target on 22% of his passes (tied for third-worst this season), and the Dolphins were held to a season-low in passing yards (167) and tied a season-low in points (14).
The weather in Kansas City will not help their case, as we do not expect Hawaii native Tagovailoa to play well in below-zero temperatures. It also does not help that Dolphins linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker suffered injuries last week, adding to a decimated defense already missing its two stud edge rushers. In addition, Patrick Mahomes has won six consecutive wild card/divisional playoff games.
The Buffalo Bills also get a massive break by facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense without the services of T.J. Watt (MCL sprain), as the Steelers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games without him.
Last season with Watt on the field, Pittsburgh ranked first in QBR allowed (35), second in sack percentage (8.8%), and second in yards per play allowed (4.8). And entering its Week 14 game when Watt was dealing with a concussion, Pittsburgh's defensive splits when Watt was on versus off the field were staggering. At that point, In the 86% of plays that Watt was on the field for, the Steelers allowed a 38 QBR and a 38% third down conversion percentage. For the 14% of plays that Watt was off the field for, their QBR allowed rose to 64 QBR, and they allowed opponents to convert 63% of third downs, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Since No. 7 seeds are 0-6 SU in the small sample size of the new NFL playoff format, adding the Bills as a second leg of this parlay makes sense from a value standpoint, as no shop offers cheaper than -200 odds to back the Chiefs straight up. BetRivers has the best price for Kansas City's (-200) and Buffalo's (-500), so the -125 odds for this two-leg parlay is the best price bettors will find for now.
We have the utmost respect for what the Cowboys have done at home this season, finishing as the only team who went undefeated in home games, with a point differential of + 172. However, two of Dallas's last three home games were its only one-possession home games of the season, and Green Bay is built to handle the pressure of the Cowboys pass rush.
Dak Prescott has the highest QBR under pressure (78) since Week 10, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love is second on that list (75), which is essential since the Cowboys' defense led the NFL in pressure rate this season. In addition, the Packers have averaged 385.9 yards per game since Week 9 (4th).
We would only play Green Bay at +7.5 or higher and would pass at +7, so we have our choice to make our wager at BetMGM, Caesars, or bet365.
NFL best bets made 1/11/2023 at 12:27 a.m. ET.
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