We're examining the massive role that defense will play in Friday night's Big Ten matchup as we make our Nebraska-Illinois prediction based on the best college football odds.
Nebraska (2-3) hasn't really been able to find its footing in conference play this season. The Huskers are searching for their first Big Ten win of the season as they travel to face Illinois (2-3) on Friday night in Champaign.
For the Illini, they've had similar trouble gaining traction in the early going. Could this be a slug-it-out, ugly affair?
To help fill out your college football predictions for Week 6, here is our best Nebraska vs. Illinois prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nebraska vs. Illinois prediction
Nebraska and Illinois don't profile as robust offensive teams by any stretch of the imagination. The Illini rank 94th in the nation in scoring on a points-per-game basis, averaging 21.6 PPG. The Cornhuskers are even worse, scoring an average of 18.8 PPG (111th in FBS).
Given the relative inefficiencies of both offenses compared to both defenses, there's no reason to believe the scoring expectations should change much for Friday night's game. Nebraska's offensive efficiency ranks outside the top 100 across FBS, but its adjusted defensive efficiency suggests a capable group, coming in at No. 49 overall. Offensively, Illinois similarly ranks better on the defensive side, as the Illini are 91st in adjusted offensive efficiency but 72nd in defensive efficiency.
Though Illinois runs an offense that ranks 20th in the nation in seconds per play, Nebraska will look to turn the game into a slog with its 114th-ranked pace offensively as part of our college football predictions for Week 6. The notion that both offenses are less efficient than the defenses they'll be opposing will contribute to the belief in a low-scoring affair.
Although Nebraska's strength offensively is in the run game-an area where Illinois has statistically been weaker this season-the notion of Nebraska chewing up time of possession by running the ball with frequency should still contribute to keeping the total points down in the game. Therefore, we don't view Nebraska running all over the Illini as a risk to keeping the total to the Under.
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Nebraska vs. Illinois best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 43 | Under 43.5 | Under 43.5 | Under 43 | Under 43 |
| -110 | -120 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 provide identical odds and an identical line on this total at 43 with standard -110 odds. FanDuel and BetMGM list the total at a half-point higher at 43.5, but charge a premium to get the Under at that number.
FanDuel's juice to -120 is not worth the squeeze compared to the more reasonable -115 odds on Under 43.5 at BetMGM. We recommend this Under as a four-star play at 43.5, and would play it as a three-star play down to 41.5.
Nebraska vs. Illinois odds
Nebraska vs. Illinois odds analysis
Illinois opened as a 3-point home favorite and has seen that number move to -3.5 across our best sports betting apps. Nearly 55% of point-spread wagers have been placed on Illinois.
The total opened at 44.5 and has dipped slightly to between 43 and 43.5 across our b est sports betting sites. Despite this movement, 61% of wagers have come in on the Over.
Nebraska vs. Illinois game info
- When: Friday, Oct. 6, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 53 degrees, 20 mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation
Nebraska-Illinois prediction made Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET.
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