Heading into Game 3, it seems as though most bettors think this is going to be all Nuggets the rest of the way. Our VSiN NBA Betting Splits page tells us that a large majority of the tickets have come in on Denver to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. But people have been wrong about this Heat team at every turn. That’s part of the reason the Heat are 14-6 against the spread since the start of the playoffs.
There were some rumblings that Tyler Herro (hand) would return for Game 3, but the scorer was ruled out by the Heat on Tuesday. It would have been nice for Miami to get him back, as the team doesn’t have many guys that can put up 20 on any given night. But the Heat have been just fine without him, as they’re three wins away from winning an NBA title and have done most of that work with Herro watching from the sidelines.
While Denver has a lot more talent than Miami, the Nuggets have some real weaknesses they need to address. The main one is that Denver is prone to defensive breakdowns, and that has resulted in far too many open 3s for Erik Spoelstra’s team. The Heat shot 17 for 35 from behind the 3-point line in Game 2, and a lot of those were uncontested looks. If Miami continues to get great shots in this series, the difference in talent won’t matter. The Heat are too close to the finish line and truly believe they can compete with anyone.