The Washington Nationals (+130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-155) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Stolen Bases Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in his last away game (+1.95 Units / 195% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in his last away game (+1.95 Units / 195% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+1.30 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Will Benson has hit the RBIs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Martini has hit the Hits Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Singles Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
28 of Josiah Gray’s 95 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has an average spin rate of 1959.4 RPM on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray allowed an OBP of .383 (196 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (82 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
Frankie Montas has averaged 88.5 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — 94th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Frankie Montas vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season is 406.8 feet — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 398.1
Frankie Montas’ highest spin rate on fastballs since the 2021 season is 2659.0 RPM — 8th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2974.6