Twelve new series begin Friday, which should bring some excitement around Major League Baseball throughout the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the new series beginning Friday, one of the most exciting matchups is between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, two teams that have combined to represent seven of the last 12 World Series participants, including when they battled for seven games in the 2017 World Series.
Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Reds look to extend their 11-game winning streak against the best team they have played in that span, the Atlanta Braves.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's MLB schedule and odds
- Kansas City Royals (+220) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-260)
- Minnesota Twins (-140) vs. Detroit Tigers (+120)
- Atlanta Braves (-150) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+130)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) vs. Miami Marlins (-175)
- Seattle Mariners (-105) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-115)
- New York Mets (+100) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-120)
- Texas Rangers (OFF) vs. New York Yankees
- Oakland Athletics (+245) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-295)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+130) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-150)
- Boston Red Sox (-115) vs. Chicago White Sox (-105)
- Los Angeles Angels (-165) vs. Colorado Rockies (+140)
- Washington Nationals (+235) vs. San Diego Padres (-280)
- Houston Astros (+125) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) vs. San Francisco Giants (-180)
Friday' s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Luke Weaver Under 3.5 strikeouts (+115 via Caesars) vs. Braves ????
- Player prop: Manny Machado to hit a home run (+450 via PointsBet) vs. Nationals ???
- Player prop: Taijuan Walker Over earned runs (OFF) vs. Mets ???
- Moneyline: Red Sox (-110 via WynnBet) vs. White Sox ???
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Friday's MLB prop picks
One way to attack a game with a high projected total like this one (O/U 11) is to back batter props or fade the pitchers, and we are choosing to do the latter with this wager. Cincinnati Reds starter Luke Weaver has pitched twice during the team's 11-game winning streak, and the Reds won both in extra innings while Weaver recorded four strikeouts in 9 2/3 combined innings. Weaver ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in strikeout rate and whiff percentage, and this year's 19.5% strikeout percentage is on pace to be the lowest of his career.
Weaver faces an Atlanta Braves team that is 6-0 against the NL Central and 14 games over .500 against right-handed starting pitchers (tied for the second-best in MLB). Atlanta ranks top-nine in strikeout rate, which improves to top-five against right-handed pitchers on the road. And given that the Braves rank best in HR/FB ratio against righties on the road, fourth in hard-hit percentage, and fifth in wRC+, Weaver should not be around long enough to compile many strikeouts.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U of 4.5 Ks, and though that Under seems like a lock, we are more enticed by the plus-money odds at Under 3.5 at Caesars.
Of all San Diego Padres hitters who have played 40-plus games, Manny Machado ranks third in slugging. But he finally appears fully healthy, slashing .312/.341/.519 since his return from an IL stint on June 2. Machado has hit just four home runs in 19 games in that span but has mashed left-handed pitching, slugging .541 with a .965 OPS, which makes his chances of taking southpaw Patrick Corbin deep even greater.
Though Corbin's home run rate is down for the third straight year, his strikeout rate is on pace to decrease for the sixth consecutive season and is down 16.7% from his career high in 2018. Corbin's xERA is 6.31 compared to his actual 4.89 ERA, which suggests regression is coming for a pitcher who ranks in the sixth percentile in xSLG and first percentile in xBA. This is a three-star play for Machado to homer in consecutive games (which he has done two other times this season), as he has a career 1.011 OPS in 18 career at-bats against Corbin.
PointsBet is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than +425 odds for this wager, and the +450 looks like a steal compared to the +295 found at Caesars.
Taijuan Walker has allowed just one earned run over his last 20 innings spanning three starts. And though he has allowed two or fewer hits in four of his previous six starts, he has also issued at least three walks three times in that span, which will catch up to him eventually. That plays right into the New York Mets' hands, as they own the second-best BB:K ratio against right-handed pitching in road games this season.
The Mets rank ninth or worse among all National League teams in runs, batting average, and on-base percentage. However, they got hot in Houston, averaging seven runs per game despite losing two of three to the Astros. New York has averaged better than six runs per game over the previous six games, and the Over is 7-4 after it has a day off. We expect the Mets' familiarity with Walker's arsenal – given that he spent two seasons in Queens – to lead to more offensive success and to cool off Walker amid a torrid stretch.
No earned runs props are available at our best sportsbooks (DraftKings and Caesars) for this wager yet. But as the Mets have a projected team total of 4.5 runs, we would gladly back the Over of 2.5 earned runs for Walker when it becomes available.
Friday's MLB game picks
The Boston Red Sox are a profitable 10-7 in “coin-flip” games, when their odds have been anywhere from +100 to -120, while the Chicago White Sox are 4-7 in that same category. Boston has either won or split three of its last four series, despite playing three of those series against potential playoff teams, the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins, in that span.
Now the Red Sox turn to Brayan Bello, who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine consecutive starts. Bello has a respectable 22.5% strikeout rate and .220 BAA in that span and is likely to see an uptick in strikeouts despite a 10.8% swinging-strike rate. The White Sox strike out at the sixth-highest rate among all American League teams, and Lucas Giolito's GB/FB rate is on pace to be the worst of his career. In addition, his 41.7% hard-hit rate has not been this poor since his rookie year (2016).
WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering less than -115 odds on the favored Red Sox.
MLB best bets made 6/23/2023 at 7:19 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
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- Caesars Promo Code: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet Promo Code: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)