Saturday's Major League Baseball slate is jampacked with 15 games, and we offer our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
This weekend, MLB fans will have an opportunity to see teams play each other that they do not often face, as there are more interleague contests (three) than divisional matchups (two).
The most high-profile interleague matchup is the series between the red-hot New York Yankees and the playoff-hopeful San Diego Padres. The Yankees look to improve their American League-best 18-9 road record.
Among the divisional matchups, one of the best rivalries in the sport is in the opening game of their first series following yesterday's rainout, as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs from Busch Stadium, with the Cardinals trailing the Cubs by three games in the standings.
Here are our ML B player props and expert picks for Saturday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB expert picks
- Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-120 via bet365) ????
- Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs (+140 via bet365) ????
- Marcus Stroman Under 2.5 earned runs (-123 via Caesars) ????
- Jordan Montgomery to record a win (+145 via bet365) ???
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -125 | -130 | N/A | -131 | -120 |
Game info: Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins | Moneyline: Twins (-130 via Betway) | Total: 8.5 via Betway | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET
It was always going to be difficult for Corey Seager to match or exceed his AL-best 42 doubles last season, but the fact that he has just three to this point while slugging .420 has us believing that positive regression is looming.
That regression may already be in the process and should begin against Minnesota Twins righty Chris Paddack, against whom Seager is 4-for-10 lifetime with three extra-base hits and a 1.300 OPS (the third-highest of any batter against a starting pitcher on today's slate, min. 10 at-bats).
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Paddack ranks in the bottom third of the league in hard-hit percentage allowed, the bottom quarter in xBA, and the 16th percentile in barrels. Thus, we expect Seager to extend his eight-game hitting streak (he has a home run in four straight) and go over this projected total for the sixth consecutive game.
Best odds: -120 via bet365
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +135 | +110 | N/A | +129 | +140 |
Game info: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Moneyline: Braves (-160 via Betway) | Total: 8.5 via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET
First baseman Matt Olson is one of three Braves hitters with at least four RBIs over the last seven days entering Friday, and his 13 total bases are second in that span only to the red-hot Marcell Ozuna. While Ozuna deserved a long look for his RBI props, Olson's price provides much better value compared to how much success the lineup as a whole figures to have against righty Mitch Keller.
The Braves have slashed a combined .378/.399/.601 in 82 combined at-bats against Keller, with four of their nine extra-base hits going for home runs. Olson's 41.4% strikeout rate over the previous seven days entering Friday is concerning. Still, Keller is not known for strikeouts, ranking in the 40th percentile in strikeout rate and 26th percentile in whiff rate. Olson&# 39;s .448 slugging percentage over the last week is second on the team (min. 14 at-bats), and he has driven in at least one run in four of the last 10 games. Olson has raised his OPS from a season-low .664 on May 11 to .716, and we expect him to be a big part of Atlanta's offensive success today.
Best odds: +140 via bet365
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -125 | N/A | N/A | -123 | -123 |
Game info: New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres | Moneyline: Padres (-120 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 6:05 p.m. ET
The New York Yankees played 11 games from May 12 up to their series opener against the San Diego Padres on Friday, and their starting pitching was a big reason they went 9-2 in that span.
Yankees starters went 9-1 with a 0.92 ERA in that stretch, and to put that into perspective, the difference between their ERA and the second-best team's ERA in that span was bigger than the difference between the second and ninth-best team. Yankees starters also ranked sixth in K/9 rate, and when opponents did put the ball in play, they had a collective .210 BABIP, by far the lowest in the league.
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Marcus Stroman looks to continue that torrid stretch of Yankee pitching, and he has allowed just one earned run in his last 13 1/3 innings while allowing a .111 BABIP in that span, which is important because of his relatively low 5.40 K/9 rate. Stroman has been hot recently and has had tremendous success against current Padres hitters, holding them to a combined .217/.268/.362 slash line with a 21.7% strikeout rate in 83 at-bats.
Best odds: -123 via Caesars
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +140 | N/A | N/A | +129 | +145 |
Game info: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-180 via Betway) | Total: 9.5 via Betway | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Miami Marlins are on pace for 106 losses, and despite coming off their best week of the season, when they won series against the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets (including three consecutive shutouts), they are downright pathetic against left-handed starting pitchers, winning just one of their 18 games when a lefty has started.
Thus, backing Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery to earn the victory in this start is an excellent way to get around the team's steep moneyline odds.
Montgomery has won two of his six starts, but the team is 4-2 in his outings and has won three straight (all by two or fewer runs). We expect him to dominate a Marlins lineup that ranks 28th in on-base percentage and slugging against southpaws and 29th i n wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
Arizona should have little difficulty getting out to an early lead in this game, as Miami was 8-20 in the first five innings moneyline over its last 28 games entering Friday (-8.90 units/-28% ROI), and the Diamondbacks had profited bettors +5.55 units and had a 9% ROI in that split over their last 50 games.
Best odds: +145 via bet365
MLB player props made Saturday at 7:11 a.m. ET.
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