The Miami Marlins (-130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+105) on Tuesday, September 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Marlins are 81-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 70-86 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 away games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+18.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 37 of his last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+15.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+13.55 Units / 50% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 away games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+8.97 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.49 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.17 Units / 24% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+18.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+13.68 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+7.72 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 72-84 against the Run Line (-29.25 Units / -14.09% ROI).

• 81-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 0.57% ROI
• 72-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -8.47% ROI
• 79-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-25.75 Units / -12.93% ROI).

• 71-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.85 Units / -16.12% ROI
• 63-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.95 Units / -18.01% ROI
• 85-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 9.1% ROI

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (348/712) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.9 — sixth Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (557/1,151) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has walked 4 of 134 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (25/39) against Joey Lucchesi — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

Joey Lucchesi has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to May 13rd — Ryan Walker has the longest active streak at 8.

Joey Lucchesi has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.0 innings he’s appeared — Blake Snell has the longest active streak at 41.2.

  
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