We have now entered the “Dick Vitale season,” not because our lives will be filled with college basketball—a Vitale specialty. Rather for the excitement towards certain players and the overreaction to moves made by NFL teams during the off-season. Vitale loves to go off, calling everyone and anyone who makes a play, a PTP (prime-time player), and most of the national media do the same when a once great player changes teams. Don’t believe me? Review all the Russell Wilson quotes after the trade—few doubters all lovers, all screaming like Vitale, he was a PTP who needed to cook. After a year, we are still waiting for Russ to don the apron.
I fully understand we still have one more game to go before the “official” off-season begins, but during this bye week before Super Bowl LVII, it might prove worthwhile to review our handicapping of teams from last year as they enter the off-season. Remember every year is a new year. Nothing is static in the NFL. Just ask the Rams.
Every NFL off-season is fun, filled with over-the-top reactions and criticism for those teams who don’t follow the perceived media beliefs. If a losing team doesn’t make a move, then they get shot down, and if a winning team makes a few moves, suddenly, their stock rises. We all need to take a “Warren Buffett” approach when breaking down the off-season before placing any bets on over and under win totals. Buffett searches for companies with good structural leadership, solid culture, and the willingness to adapt to changing times. He invests in undervalued companies that can turn around with a few smart decisions. For example, last year, the Giants were a mess. Bad cap situation, and not much talent on the roster, but the change in leadership affected their record. The Vikings were a team with talent, who needed improvement in certain areas any by changing the leadership—shifting from defense to offense—they could improve. Both teams were underva lued last spring, both teams didn’t make any splashy moves in the off-season, and both teams cashed on their over totals.
Both teams will begin the ‘23 off-season with high expectations. They will assume a few moves here and there, along with returning their core elements from last year’s team, will close the gap on their competition. Wrong. Buffett’s investment strategy looks for teams that are undervalued, and now with the winning, the Vikings and Giants won’t fit that profile. Thus, be leery in making another investment. The NFL is much like the business world—going from good to great is the hardest step to take. NFL rules hinder winning, making it harder to select elite talent. Winning also requires teams to pay for last year’s success, meaning players who are free agents want their money.