Well, we had a rough weekend going 4-6 ATS with only one ML underdog winner (Notre Dame), but at one point, we were set up to win our ML underdog parlay and cash on San Diego State ML. Alas, Pittsburgh led 24-14 and then gave up 28 unanswered points; San Diego State led 28-10 and gave up 22 unanswered points. Underdogs went 2-3 ATS (one ML winner), and favorites went 2-3 ATS (4-1 ML). This brings our ATS record to 25-20-1 with eleven ML underdog winners.
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The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), and PFF Rush Defense.