The NFL's Week 6 opens with an AFC West rivalry clash on Thursday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos, and we have you covered with our best Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction based on the best NFL odds.
The Denver Broncos squandered a 13-8 lead against the New York Jets in Week 5 and have now lost an NFL record 10 straight games when leading at halftime (0-3 this season). The Kansas City Chiefs have won four consecutive games (three by one possession) to take a 1.5-game lead in the AFC West.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 11-0 against the Broncos in his career, and Kansas City's Week 17 victory over Denver last year was its 15th straight, which tied the third-longest streak in NFL history of one team beating a single opponent.
Here is our best Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction for Thursday Night Football as we look at the best NFL Week 6 o dds (TNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Thursday Night Football
A wager on the Under involving the Broncos is a risky proposition, especially after they allowed 31 points to the Jets despite New York not scoring a single touchdown on five red-zone possessions. And while Denver has allowed 28-plus points in four consecutive games, tied for its longest streak since the 1970 merger, there are still plenty of reasons to believe this Thursday night tilt will be lower-scoring than expected.
Denver has allowed 171-plus yards rushing in four consecutive games and was the latest victim of Breece Hall, whose 171 rushing yards were the most by a Jets running back since Isaiah Crowell in 2018. That does not figure to get much better against a Chiefs offense that ranks in the top 12 in the league in rushing (123 yards per game), especially since Denver will likely continue to employ its base nickel defense to respect Patrick Mahomes a nd the Chiefs passing attack.
Travis Kelce's ankle injury last week must not have been all that serious, as he returned in the third quarter to catch a touchdown pass. However, there is no telling how the ankle could swell up postgame. In addition, these teams play each other twice over the next three weeks, so we would not be surprised to see the Chiefs employ more of a ground-and-pound style on a short week to save some of the playbook for their return meeting in Denver.
This is a three-star play, as Kansas City's defense has allowed 14.8 points per game during its four-game winning streak and held all opponents to 20 or fewer points. Thus, even though Russell Wilson's 11 touchdown passes are the most by a Broncos quarterback through five games since Peyton Manning in 2014, he may not possess the ball long enough to add to those numbers if his defense cannot get off the field Thursday.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 51 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
Under backers will find the best number at BetRivers compared to our other five best sports betting apps, as its total is as much as a full point higher than some of its competitors.
Denver has been the second-most profitable Over team this season, cashing it in four of five games, while the Under is 3-2 in Kansas City's five contests. The Over cashed in the previous three meetings between these teams by an average of 9.7 points.
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds for Thursday Night Football
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds analysis
The total opened at 50.5 at FanDuel on Sunday night and was quickly bet to 51.5 within the first hour before coming back down a half-point. Conversely, the total opened higher at 51.5 at BetMGM, and Under backers drove the line down to 50.5 by Monday morning. Early wagers are 75/25 in support of the Over.&n bsp;
All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with Kansas City as a 10.5-point favorite, with FanDuel juiced the highest (-115 odds) to lay the points with the favorites. There has not yet been any point spread movement in the NFL Week 6 odds, but it could come soon, as an overwhelming 85% of early wagers have backed the Chiefs. Mahomes is 44-44-1 ATS as a favorite in his career but is just 10-13-1 ATS when his teams are favored by double digits.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 82 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph SSE
Broncos-Chiefs prediction made 10/9/23 at 6:29 a.m. ET
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