In his home debut with the Phoenix Suns, what should we expect from Kevin Durant? Jon Metler shares three of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Wednesday's games using the latest NBA odds.
Durant making his home debut for the Suns is electric, but it's even better coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Revenge game! The real question is whether we're going Over or Under on Durant's points total against the Thunder, and I think you might be able to guess my preference.
With the NBA same-game parlays up 3.56 units this week, let's keep the momentum going.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Wednesday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Wednesday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans | Luka Doncic 8-plus assists, Jonas Valanciunas Over 14.5 points | +331 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns | Durant Over 26.5 points/Over 4.5 assists | +285 |
| Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Clippers | Kawhi Leonard Over 3.5 assists, Jakob Poeltl Under 9.5 rebounds | +202 |
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Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Mavericks vs. Pelicans
Doncic is trading with a total of 6.5 assists and a price of -140 for the Over at FanDuel, but I will push the envelope here and target the eight-plus assists because it yields me a higher expected value. By betting on the eight-plus assists at +130, I have a positive expected value of 26% based on my projection of 8.1 assists for Doncic. While the Over 6.5 at -140 only nets me a positive expected value of 18%, which is still a very solid bet, but I clearly prefer the higher edge we're seeing with the prop for eight or more assists.
The Mavericks struggle to stop dribble pe netration from guards and really lack rim protection on the interior, which will benefit Valanciunas. CJ McCollum should be able to create some easy buckets around the rim for Valanciunas, who scored 19 points on 11 field goal attempts in his last game. Valanciunas is projected to score 15.7 points against the Mavericks, so we can price this prop at -125 to go Over the total of 14.5 points.
NBA SGP predictions: Thunder vs. Suns
With Durant making his home debut for the Suns and a revenge game against his former team the Oklahoma City Thunder, this bet has it all. It's projected that Durant will score 28.3 points on Wednesday night, so the Over 26.5 points should be trading closer to -135 than -115. We're seeing sportsbooks such as Caesars trend this way, as they have the Over 26.5 points priced at -127.
I was critical of the pricing on Durant's assist prop in his last outing against the Mavericks, but as all the numbers shift once again, this prop is one of my favorite bets on the board. Durant is projected to drop 5.1 assists against the Thunder, so there's a zero percent chance that we should be able to buy this at +120. For the best value on a straight bet for this prop, head over to DraftKings where they're trading the Over 4.5 assists at +130.
NBA SGP predictions: Raptors vs. Clippers
There's no doubt that Leonard's points prop will attract a lot of attention when he faces his former team, but I much prefer the edge we're seeing with Leonard's assist prop. Since Leonard is projected to drop 4.6 assists against the Raptors, the Over 3.5 assists should be trading closer to -195 than -148. It seems like a lot of juice for a player who isn't known to be an assist type of player, but even at -148, we're seeing a positive expected value of 11%.
In the middle of the game against the Memphis Grizzles on Sunday, the Clippers opted to run with a much smaller lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing on Wednesday. There's a possibility that this will lead to Poeltl being pushed out of the Raptors lineup and him seeing fewer minutes on the court. Since Poeltl is only projected to grab 8.7 rebounds, we can price the Under 9.5 rebounds at -170.
NBA player prop picks made 03/08/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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