The Atlanta Braves completed a much-needed comeback victory in Game 2 of their series with the Philadelphia Phillies to tie the series at 1-1. Now in Philadelphia, Atlanta will need to lean on their historic offense as they tap into the backend of their starting rotation. Austin Riley is very familiar with the matchup at hand and has been a key contributor in big games numerous times before. We have a player prop on the Braves 3rd baseman for this evening’s matchup. Let’s dive in!
Austin Riley (ATL) over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120)
I have taken very few individual batter props this season relative to other markets I dabble in, but the hits + runs + RBI market, or HRRBI, has been a profitable one for me this year. There are numerous pathways to victory in this market and as a result I tend to prefer this angle to a total base market despite price differential. With Austin Riley we are getting a premier batter slotted into an elite batting position in an all-time historic offense. The Atlanta Braves produced countless team and league records this year and Riley was a key part of their success. The slugging 3rd baseman notched 37 home runs, 32 doubles, and 97 RBI this season while producing a 127 wRC+. Riley hits batters of either handedness very well which is crucial in a playoff format where opposing teams are likely to utilize several arms per game. The Phillies are starting right-hander Aaron Nola tonight, a pitcher that Riley has had tremendous success against both this season and across his career.
In 57 career PA against Nola the right-handed batter has hit for a .389 batting average while slugging .759 with 5 home runs and 5 doubles. Among those 5 home runs 2 came in 1 game this season. He has only 3 walks in those plate appearances which makes sense given Riley’s decreased BB% against RHP and Nola’s decreased BB% against RHB. Overall, Nola has just a 5.7% BB% this season which ranks 87th percentile and leads to a ton of balls in play. The Phillies pitcher uses 5 different pitches when facing right-handed batters. His curveball leads the way at 29.3% while his 2 fastballs follow closely behind. Nola uses his 4-seamer and 2-seam sinker 26.7% and 26.2% of the time respectively while his cutter sees 11.1% usage against righties. He sprinkles an occasional changeup in there as well at 6.6% usage. Riley has hit very well against this arsenal from right-handed pitchers this season. The only batting average below .303 that Riley has against any of those pitches is the 4-seam fastball where he hits .245. Still, the Braves 3-hole hitter is fully capable of crushing that offering as he has shown in previous seasons. With a SLG of .516 or higher on Nola’s other 4 offerings, Riley should be in line to see pitches he likes early in tonight’s game.