The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-120) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Padres are 23-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-20 ATS.

Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 3-1, 2.44 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 1-1, 4.95 ERA

Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+23.50 Units / 138% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+15.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+17.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.20 Units / 39% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+14.70 Units / 73% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+14.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.15 Units / 43% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+12.65 Units / 47% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+6.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 27 games (+21.75 Units / 72% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+3.90 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 24-23 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 4.37% ROI).

• 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -10.38% ROI
• 24-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.19% ROI
• 22-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -8.46% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-20 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 4.09% ROI).

• 26-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 2.66% ROI
• 12-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.3 Units / -38.62% ROI
• 27-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.9 Units / 30.55% ROI

Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 48% of the time (275/570) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Yu Darvish over the last 14 days — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .200 against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP– 90th Percentile. Opponents batted .455 (30-for-66) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — fourth worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– third Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of just .334 (43 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .679 — 99th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Bryce Elder has averaged 89.8 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.

Bryce Elder has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (200/383) of left-handed hitters since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% (150/752) against Bryce Elder since the 2022 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (75/540) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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