The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Tuesday, October 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).

The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 89-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 78-91 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 71.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+12.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+17.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+17.20 Units / 33% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 43 games (+15.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+13.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games (+11.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+10.45 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 away games (+10.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+8.12 Units / 8% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 112 games (+17.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.78 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games (+8.46 Units / 95% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 94% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 93-75 against the Run Line (+8.95 Units / 4.13% ROI).

• 89-79 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.45 Units / 4.57% ROI
• 73-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -12.41% ROI
• 86-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.4 Units / 4.07% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 78-91 against the Run Line (-18.85 Units / -9.06% ROI).

• 96-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 0.65% ROI
• 76-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -5.71% ROI
• 79-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -2.52% ROI

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Merrill Kelly has walked 25 of 207 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .132 (98-for-740) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .170 — 96th Percentile.

66% of Merrill Kelly’s called strikeouts are low this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 93rd Percentile.

25 of Merrill Kelly’s 187 strikeouts (13%) have come on cutters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 91st Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (334/1,064) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has not walked any of the 47 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

  
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