The Miami Marlins (-130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+105) on Tuesday, September 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 81-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 70-86 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 away games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+18.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 37 of his last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+15.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+13.55 Units / 50% ROI)
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jorge Soler | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Jon Berti | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Jon Berti | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jorge Soler | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Joey Lucchesi | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Braxton Garrett | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 away games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+8.97 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.49 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.17 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+18.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+13.68 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+7.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 72-84 against the Run Line (-29.25 Units / -14.09% ROI).
- 81-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 0.57% ROI
- 72-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -8.47% ROI
- 79-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-25.75 Units / -12.93% ROI).
- 71-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.85 Units / -16.12% ROI
- 63-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.95 Units / -18.01% ROI
- 85-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 9.1% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (348/712) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.9 — sixth Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (557/1,151) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 4 of 134 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (25/39) against Joey Lucchesi — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Joey Lucchesi has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to May 13rd — Ryan Walker has the longest active streak at 8.
Joey Lucchesi has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.0 innings he’s appeared — Blake Snell has the longest active streak at 41.2.