The Vegas Golden Knights host the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final, and Sportsbook Review analyst Neil Parker has taken a statistical deep dive based on the NHL odds from our best live betting sites to fuel his Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final betting preview.
Let's all settle into a Los Vegas state of mind. The Vegas Golden Knights are the betting favorites in the Stanley Cup odds, and I'm expecting them to win it all during the franchise's second trip to the final.
But it won't be a smooth stroll with the Florida Panthers checking out as both a formidable opponent and a proven upset specialist.
The Cats will line up against the Cup favorite for a fourth consecutive series, and they've already taken down the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes while stringing together a scorching 11 -1 stretch.
Alright, we're down from 32 to two, and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman can only hand the Cup off to one captain.
Here's my statistical analysis and Golden Knights preview ahead of the Stanley Cup Final, and a trio of picks available through DraftKings.
Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final Betting Preview: Statistical deep dive
It's been seven games since the Conn Smythe Trophy hopeful has found the back of the net. Eichel ranks second in shots, third in attempts, and fourth in individual expected goals during the skid. Also, his 15.4 shooting percentage through Eichel's first 10 games of the postseason wasn't considerably higher than his 12.1 regular-season mark.
The goal drought has dropped Eichel to a 10.2 postseason shooting percentage, and an upcoming increase in shooting efficiency shouldn't be surprising.
The veteran winger is a proven secondary scorer, and his playoff numbers are similar to his regular-season statistics except in the goals and shooting percentage columns.
| Smith | Goals per 60 | Expected goals per 60 | Shooting percentage | Shots per 60 | Attempts per 60 | High-danger scoring chances per 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 0.42 | 0.79 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 3.13 |
| Regular season | 1.18 | 0.9 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 14.1 | 3.63 |
Smith has been playing against the opposition's top scorers in a checking role alongside longtime center William Karlsson. Still, with Karlsson sporting an unsustainably high 27.0 shooting percentage during the postseason, look for some puck luck to flip in Smith's favor.
You're not going to hear Roy's name roll off too many tongues leading into the Stanley Cup Final. But the 26-year-old center is in the midst of a sneaky postseason stretch with nine points through the past 12 games.
But, he's only scored a single goal despite ranking fifth in individual expected goals and third in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes for Vegas during the playoffs.
Roy sports an 11.8 shooting percentage across 221 regular-season games over the past four years with the Golden Knights. Look for him to improve on his 6. 9 postseason mark against Florida.
Talk about staring statistical correction directly in the eye. Just check the splits for this pair of Vegas centers.
| Stephenson | Goals per 60 | Expected goals per 60 | Shooting percentage | Shots per 60 | Attempts per 60 | High-danger scoring chances per 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 1.55 | 0.66 | 34.8 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 2.52 |
| Regular season | 0.62 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 3.0 |
| Karlsson | Goals per 60 | Expected goals per 60 | Shooting percentage | Shots per 60 | Attempts per 60 | High-danger scoring chances per 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 1.99 | 1.03 | 27.0 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 3.99 |
| Regular season | 0.59 | 0.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 12.2 | 3.98 |
It's possible Stephenson and Karlsson continue to shine across a small sample, but I'm betting negative regression begins to take its toll in short order.
Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final betting preview: picks
The goals should be coming for Eichel, but I also value his playmaking ability and go-to offensive role.
He's been pacing the Golden Knights in assists and primary assists overall per 60 minutes while also leading Vegas forwards in ice time per game during the playoffs, including with the man advantage.
Add in that 70.7% of his faceoffs are coming in the offensive zone, and Eichel's role and offensive output position him to finish as the assist leader during the Stanley Cup Final.
This prop is trading as short as +500 through Caesar s. The +900 number presents a positive expected value of 67% and an extra profit of $80 on a $20 bet over the Caesars price.
Sticking with Eichel, I was originally targeting him for the most points in the series before seeing the huge +900 odds in the most assists market. The best odds for Eichel to lead the series in points are +400 through Caesars.
I also like this head-to-head matchup as a way to double down on the Vegas superstar. With the case for Eichel outlined, it's time to pivot to Tkachuk.
The Florida winger sports silly numbers, but his playoff production is lower than Tkachuk's regular-season ratios, and now he faces a smothering defense.
| Tkachuk | Points per 60 | Shots per 60 | Shooting percentage | Attempts per 60 | High-danger scoring chances per 60 | Power-play ice time per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 3.47 | 7.93 | 18.8 | 13.04 | 5.94 | 4:10 |
| Regular season | 4.05 | 12.0 | 12.38 | 19.96 | 7.47 | 4:26 |
With Vegas allowing a measly 1.64 goals and 2.52 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the postseason, I'm expecting Tkachuk's shooting percentage to dip in the series. Additionally, he'll struggle to find the back of the net if there isn't an uptick in shot volume.
Finally, Eichel is also listed at +100 to score more goals in the series than Tkachuk.
These two star defensemen have each scored just a single goal across a combined 33 playoff games, so there's a decent chance neither nets one during the final. Still, Pietrangelo tops Ekblad in a number of metrics I value during the playoffs.
| Shots per 60 | Expected goals per 60 | Attempts per 60 | Scoring chances per 60 | Ice time per game | Power-play ice time per game | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietrangelo | 5.36 | 0.2 | 11.67 | 2.84 | 23:46 | 2:32 |
| Ekblad | 3.41 | 0.12 | 8.29 | 1.79 | 24:37 | 1:25 |
Logging 52:10 in Game 1 against the Carolina Hurricanes during the Eastern Conference Final is seriously skewing Ekblad's ice time per game.
Otherwise, it's advantage Pietrangelo.
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