Thursday was mostly spent taking care of my sick son, Maddux, in the Tuley’s Takes home office – and then I felt sick myself after not betting the underdog Rams in their 17-16 upset of the Raiders on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 14.
Just like Monday night when the Saints led the Buccaneers 16-3 more than halfway through the fourth quarter only to have Tom Brady lead a comeback to win 17-16, the Raiders led the Rams 16-3 more than halfway through the fourth quarter. The Raiders, who had won three straight games to put themselves into the AFC wild-card conversation, were seemingly in control the whole game, but they abandoned the balanced, wide-open offensive attack they had during their win streak and were more conservative in their approach as they tried to grind out a win – aka “playing not to lose.” The offense looked like something out of the 1970s with runs on first and second downs and then passes on third downs as the Raiders had 38 running plays with Derek Carr attempting only 20 passes. They also settled for three Daniel Carlson field goals vs. just one TD to keep the Rams in the game. Baker Mayfield, who was acquired on Tuesday after being released by the Panthers and had just one practice with his new teammates. led the Rams on two late TD drives to pull out the victory. The Raiders also drew a very Raider-like unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the game-winning drive after sacking Mayfield. We’ve had a lot of success with home underdogs this season – they improved to 41-29-4 ATS (58.6%) – but weren’t able to pull the trigger on this one. As a self-proclaimed dog-or-pass bettor, I didn’t bet the Raiders -6, but I was glad I resisted the temptation to tease them down to pick-’em as those bettors were burned in the Raiders’ collapse. Unfortunately, I still landed on a loser with my Best Bet of the day on the Over 43 as the game was never on pace to reach that relatively low total. We’re still 25-16-1 ATS (61%) since Oct. 27 with our top play of the day, so let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action before getting to our Best Bets for Friday. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll update our “takes” on the full NFL Week 14 schedule.Thursday’s Recaps
NFL: Rams rallied to beat Raiders 17-16 on Baker Mayfield's 23-yard TD pass with 10 seconds left on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 14. The Rams closed as 6-point home underdogs and +230 on the money line. The game stayed Under the betting total of 42 points.
More NFL: On the season, faves lead 121-68-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems, but dogs improved to 100-85-6 ATS (54.1%). Home teams improved to 104-83-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 95-88-6 ATS (51.9%). Unders improved to 108-85-2 (56%) and primetime Unders to 21-18-1 (53.8%).
NBA: Favorites went 2-1 SU on Thursday, but underdogs swept 3-0 ATS as the Spurs (+2) upset the Rockets 118-109 to snap an 11-game losing streak while the Clippers (+6.5) covered in 115-110 road loss at Heat and the Blazers (+1.5) covered in 121-120 home loss vs. the Nuggets. Home teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Overs led 2-1.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 244-126 SU with 6 games closing pick-’em, but dogs improved slim lead to 183-174-13 ATS (51.3%). Home teams lead 232-144 SU and 193-170-13 ATS (53.2%). Overs retook slim lead in totals wagering at 186-185-5 (50.1%).
CBB: Iowa beat No. 20 Iowa State 75-56, but it wasn't an upset as the Hawkeyes were 3.5-point home favorites and easily covered (game stayed Under betting total of 137.5 points). No. 25 Ohio State beat Rutgers 67-66 on Tanner Holden's buzzer-beating 3-pointer, but didn't cover as 6-point home faves (stayed Under 136.5).
NHL: Favorites swept 5-0 Thursday (after going 6-1 Wednesday after underdogs went 7-2 Tuesday). Home teams went 4-1 as the Jets (-120) were the lone road faves. Overs led 3-2. On the season, faves lead 246-166 with 10 PKs. Home teams lead 216-202 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs lead 205-201-16.
Friday Best Bets
Magic +7.5 vs Raptors: This is a swagger play as the Magic snapped a 9-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 116-111 OT win vs. the Clippers. No. 1 draft pick Paolo Banchero scored 10 of his 23 points in overtime to help pull the upset. We’ll look for them to use that momentum to keep close to a middle-of-the-road Toronto team that has only been favored four times on the road this season and is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Magic are 8-6 ATS as home dogs and a perfect 5-0 ATS when “getting more than a touchdown” (aka 7 points).
Ducks +105 vs. Sharks: This is another swagger play as the Ducks snapped their 6-game losing streak on Tuesday, but I’m not as confident in this play as the Magic, plus we’re barely getting more than even money. But I still feel it’s worth a play.
Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 14 schedule. Without further ado, let’s get to this week’s card (even if I don't have a Best Bet on a game, I'll still give my “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game), and then after the Monday nighter we’ll run an abbreviated version of our daily recaps along with a Best Bet for Wednesday. Las Vegas Raiders (-6) at Los Angeles RamsHmm, a home underdog on Thursday Night Football sure is tempting. Home dogs have been killing it all season at 40-29-4 ATS (58%), but they’re just 2-3 ATS on TNF (including the Rams +2 failing to cover in a 31-10 loss on opening night when everyone was healthy). That’s the problem as the Rams have been battling injuries all season and are without starting QB Matthew Stafford. John Wolford nearly pulled off an upset of the Seahawks on Sunday, though he was only 14-for-26 for just 178 yards and threw two INTS as L.A. dropped its sixth straight game. Even though they covered as 6.5-point home dogs vs. the Seahawks, I just don’t trust them to do that in two straight games against a Raiders offense that’s just started hitting its stride in its three-game winning streak.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday games).
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
This is the most surprising line move of the week as the Vikings (10-2) opened as short road favorites, but the line has flipped to the Lions being favored. Regular readers of this column know that the Lions have been one of my preferred teams to back the past two seasons (they were 11-6 ATS last year despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 8-4 ATS this year, including five covers in a row. While the Lions did cover as short 1-point faves in their 40-14 rout of the Jaguars on Sunday, the last time they were favored (and the only other time this season) was as 3-point chalk vs. the Seahawks in Week 4 as they lost 48-45. This is a clear case of where we love to fade a team in the unfamiliar favorite’s role; however, we feel more confident in just using the Vikings in 2-team, 6-point teasers and count on the Vikings to play another one-score game (they are 9-0 in one-score games so far this season, so we still might take the regular spread or on the money line).
Best Bet: Vikings +8.5 in teasers (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
We gave this out as Jets +10 on our regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night) and in the Monday version of this column. I’ve been encouraging regular readers to turn in each Sunday night as my plays on that show going 27-12 ATS (69.2%) since the start of the football season and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) since the start of November (the latter have all been early NFL picks for the following week). Double-digit dogs are 11-7 ATS (61.1%) this season, but we also faded these same Bills when they were 9.5-point faves at the Lions on Thanksgiving and covered as the Lions only lost 28-25. We also cashed with the Jets +10.5 in the first meeting between these two teams this season in the Bills’ 20-17 win in Week 9 and the Packers +10.5 the week before as the Bills only won 27-17. The Bills have been letting teams stick around all season as they’re only 5-6-1 ATS. The Jets failed to cover as 3-point dogs i n their 27-22 loss at the Vikings last week, but they had their chances and we expect another one-score game here as the Vikings also went toe-to-toe with the Bills in their classic 33-30 battle in Week 10.
Best Bet: Jets +9.5 or better (pool play: Jets 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).