The Miami Heat have lost a Game 1 for the first time all postseason, but that doesn't mean the NBA Finals are over. Read on for three reasons to bet on a Heat comeback against the Denver Nuggets based on the best NBA odds.
Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals looked pretty one-sided, with the Denver Nuggets in complete control of their 104-93 victory over the Miami Heat on Thursday. It was the type of performance we should have expected when a No. 1 seed takes on an eighth-seeded team with a championship on the line.
But counting out the Heat has burned us before. Miami upset the Milwaukee Bucks after going 1-1 in the play-in tournament to start this entire run. The Heat later won Game 7 on the road against the Boston Celtics to prevail during the Eastern Conference Finals.
This series is far from over, and we might realize that as early as Sun day's Game 2 in Denver. Before that time comes, here are three reasons to bet on a Heat comeback (odds via the best sports betting apps).
Game 1 was a scheduled loss
In truth, the Nuggets were always supposed to win Game 1 at home. Denver closed as a 9-point favorite in the opener, covering the closing number by two points. The opening spread for Game 2 has been set at 8.5 at the best sports betting sites, showing a little more respect for the Heat.
Miami completed its seven-game series with Boston on Monday before flying to Denver that night to get used to the altitude. The Heat only rested for two full days off before Game 1, whereas the Nuggets enjoyed over a week of rest after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers.
Teams coming off a seven-game series are now 33-54 straight up in Game 1 of the following series over the past 35 years, according to Evan Abrams of the Action Network.
Your opinion of the Heat shouldn't have changed based on Thursday's result. And now you can get better prices at the best sportsbooks to back the underdogs.
Miami is +600 to win the series at Caesars, which is offering the best price on its 2023 NBA Finals odds.
Jimmy Butler will play better
Jimmy Butler suffered through an off night in Game 1 after carrying the Heat to the NBA Finals. He went 6-for-14 shooting over 38 minutes, scoring 13 points to go along with seven assists and seven rebounds. Although single-game plus-minus is deeply flawed, his minus-17 point differential was the worst on the team.
Butler will play better moving forward, and that isn't really up for debate. The 13-point effort marked his lowest scoring output of the postseason. Butler is aver aging 27.2 points per game during the playoffs to go along with 5.8 assists and seven rebounds per contest.
Similar to Miami's title odds, you can now get a much more attractive price on Butler to win Finals MVP. PointsBet is currently offering a +850 value for him to lead the way in the latest NBA Finals MVP odds, an award he's certain to claim if Miami manages to win the series.
Additionally, FanDuel is listing a +1200 value on Butler to be the leading scorer in the NBA Finals after his sub-par offensive performance in Game 1. Denver big man Nikola Jokic is rightfully the favorite at -140, but FanDuel's current price on Butler is tempting when you compare it to the +600 listing for the same market at DraftKings.
Heat can knock down more shots
Whether it was fatigue or the altitude, the Heat couldn't seem to buy a bucket from long range o n Thursday. They shot 13-for-39 from beyond the arc, good for a 33.3% 3-point percentage. Miami has only shot worse than that from deep in four other playoff games during this current run.
The Heat are shooting 38.7% from distance as a team during the postseason and averaging 13.1 triples per game. They've shot 39.5% or better from downtown during 10 different playoff games, winning seven of those matchups.
Much has been made about Miami's 3-point shooting over the last few weeks. Perhaps Game 1 was a sign of regression for a team that ranked 27th in the league in regular-season 3-point percentage. But if the Heat can get hot again from deep, that will certainly even the playing field since they're the inferior team.
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