Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 on Saturday’s YRFI/NRFI best bets as the Marlins money train kept rolling along for us, but things didn’t go so well in Cleveland as both the Guardians and Astros got on the board early. My record stands at 3-1 for the week and 19-15 this season with VSIN writeups. You can expect articles from me every weekend as I analyze the most exciting market in MLB, where you only have to sweat out your bet for 15 minutes. Keep reading to find out my best plays for Sunday, June 11th.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
This series has seen a ton of action in the first inning with the YRFI cashing in both games and both teams scoring in yesterday’s opening frame. I’m willing to bet the early fireworks continue today in Atlanta especially considering the pitching matchup. Trevor Williams has been trending in a negative direction for Washington after a strong start to the season. His 11-1 NRFI record is well above his career NRFI rate of 68.2% (50-for-73), and I think he is due for regression soon. He faces a Braves offense that is one of the best in baseball this season, sporting a 47% scoring rate in the first inning at home (16-for-34).
Bryce Elder is another pitcher I think is due for some first-inning regression. He’s posted an 11-2 NRFI record this season, which is fantastic, but his xFIP is elevated and nearly a run higher than his actual FIP (4.79 to 3.61) so it’s fair to say he’s been fortunate. You might be surprised to learn the Nationals lineup has a slightly above-average scoring rate in the first inning this season at 31.8% (20-for-63) despite not having any starts at the top of the order.
Both pitchers have plenty of exposure to the opposing lineups. Here’s how each has fared against the projected top of the order: