Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
Yesterday I finally had a breakthrough going 2-0 with my best bets moving my record to 3-1 for the week. It started with the Braves putting up a crooked number on Julio Teheran in the bottom of the first, giving me some validation after Friday’s loss. Then later the YRFI hit in Los Angeles thanks to a two-out homer by Max Muncy, which was fortunate, but I’ve been on both sides of that aisle before and frankly was due for some good luck. If I can follow it up with another 2-0 performance today, this column will get back to profitability for the season.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, July 30th. I recommend three units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
The only logical reason I see not to go back to this matchup again today is the price, which is on the heftier side. I was able to find a -150 in the market this morning, and I would probably play this up to -160, which was being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication. I grade the pitching matchup a notch below yesterday, with AJ Smith-Shawver going for Atlanta against Colin Rea for the Brewers.
Smith-Shawver has limited data to report with a 2-1 NRFI record this season and an elevated 6.40 xFIP in the first inning. Rea has been slightly better at 14-4 and 4.51 but he obviously draws the considerably tougher lineup as Atlanta has now scored double-digit runs in both games of this series. They also have a 49% scoring rate at home in the opening frame this season (26-for-53) which is the second-highest rate in the league just behind the Red Sox (50.9%).
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup: