Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
We were on the verge of a sweep last Sunday with two outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the first, but JJ Bleday had other ideas, launching a homer off Astros rookie Hunter Brown to sink our NRFI spirits and send us to another 1-1 day. Not an easy pill to swallow, but when you are consistently betting into a market that spans only six outs, those are the ups and downs you have to manage over the course of a long season. At some point our luck will change, I hope.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, July 28th. I recommend three units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
The Braves have scored an early run in nearly 50% of their home games this season (25-of-51) which is the second-highest rate in the league behind the Red Sox. Adrian Houser has posted an 8-3 NRFI record this season, but the underlying data does not back it up. Houser’s xFIP in the first inning is nearly two runs higher than his actual FIP (4.87 to 3.10) which tells me he’s gotten considerably fortunate in the opening frame.
Yonny Chirinos was just claimed by the Braves off waivers from the Rays earlier this week and is being immediately thrust into a starting role. He was 4-0 to the NRFI this season in Tampa, but his xFIP in the first inning was over a run higher than his actual FIP (5.50 to 4.28) which like Houser also tells me he’s due for some regression. Milwaukee’s lineup has been slightly above average in the first inning with a scoring rate of 30% on the road this season. Perhaps they get a boost tonight after acquiring Carlos Santana yesterday from the Pirates, which will add a veteran switch-hitting presence in the heart of the order.
I was able to find plenty of -130 available in the overnight market, and I would feel comfortable playing this wager up to -140 but not at the ridiculous -165 price being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup: