If the polls were open today, with the NFL MVP award up for voting, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen would be working on a concession speech.
For six days leading up to Sunday, there was confusion about Allen’s status because of a right elbow injury. Surprisingly, Allen showed up for work, but in hindsight, it was a good time for him to sit this one out.
The result of the season’s most insane game was nearly a nightmare for bookmakers. Instead, the losers were Allen, the Bills and some unlucky bettors.
The Vikings-Bills game was an instant classic and a great example of why we as bettors have a love-hate relationship with the NFL. A play-by-play description of the drama that unfolded in Buffalo is challenging to sum up in writing and needed to be seen to be believed, but the bottom line is Minnesota escaped with a 33-30 overtime win that still seems unbelievable.
In the fourth quarter and overtime alone, Allen showed why he was the MVP favorite … and also why he’s now unlikely to win the award this season. He was sensational at times and stunningly clumsy at other times — throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble in the end zone — as the Super Bowl favorites squandered a 17-point second-half lead in a mind-boggling defeat.
The Bills were prematurely celebrating victory in the final minute of regulation before Allen mishandled a snap from center and fumbled in the end zone. In other words, just when it appeared a 27-23 win for Buffalo was a certainty, the Vikings took a 30-27 lead.
“An all-time bad beat for me,” said professional gambler Randy McKay, who followed the line moves during the week and wisely played for a middle by betting the Bills -3 and Vikings +7.
McKay was a big winner, and then he was not, and the bookmakers in jeopardy of getting middled on the game avoided disaster with the improbable turn of events.
Allen leads the league with 10 interceptions. He will bounce back and have some great days down the stretch, but the memories of his blunders against the Vikings are not going to fade away anytime soon.
Allen is fully capable of winning the Super Bowl in February. Still, the Bills are 6-3 after back-to-back losses, don’t even lead the AFC East and have lost their grip on home-field advantage in the playoffs. DraftKings still lists Buffalo as the Super Bowl favorite at 4-1 odds, but that’s a bad bet today and one of 10 lessons to take away from Week 10.
The Raiders are the league’s biggest embarrassment.
Which team is more of a mess, the Colts or Raiders? I asked that question on VSiN shows last week, and now we have a definitive answer. The Colts, led by interim coach Jeff Saturday and previously benched quarterback Matt Ryan, proved they are less of a mess by defeating Las Vegas 25-20. The 37-year-old Ryan ripped off a career-long 39-yard run on third-and-3 in the fourth quarter to set up his winning touchdown pass two plays later.
Indianapolis, a 4-point road dog, reminded everyone that anything can happen on any given Saturday … the Colts were the butt of jokes all week after putting Saturday, an ESPN analyst who had never coached above the high-school level, in charge of calling the shots. Saturday’s unprecedented promotion triggered outrage in the coaching profession.
“I’m happy Saturday won,” VSiN analyst Will Hill said. “These meatheads overestimate how hard that job is and act like they’re all brain surgeons.”
Raiders coach Josh McDaniels should be embarrassed. His quarterback, Derek Carr, should be humiliated after getting outplayed by Ryan. Las Vegas owner Mark Davis is heavily invested financially in his coach and quarterback and probably has to stick with both even while countless critics are screaming for a house cleaning.
“It’s probably an overreaction,” Red Rock sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “However, the Raiders do stink. I think you probably need to give McDaniels a chance to bring in some of his own guys.”
A year after winning 10 games and reaching the playoffs, the Raiders are a 2-7 wreck. Don’t bet on things getting better. Las Vegas has been — and will continue to be — a bet-against team.