Youmans: 10 betting lessons I learned from Week 1
Youmans: 10 betting lessons I learned from Week 1

A pitiful performance in the season opener is nothing new for the Green Bay Packers. Something similar happened a year ago and everything turned out fine. So, as Aaron Rodgers would say, just R-E-L-A-X. Remember, it’s only one of 17 games and look at a loss in Week 1 as nothing more than a Panchakarma cleanse.

In the NFL world, this is known as Overreaction Monday, when one game defines the season, for better or worse. This is all we have to analyze until the next game is played and most teams appear completely different.

Rodgers, who considers himself the coolest quarterback on the planet, admitted he could have played much better than he did Sunday in the Packers’ 23-7 loss to the Vikings. He was intercepted once and sacked four times. Green Bay had bigger problems, however, and its defense deserved most of the blame.

Why bother to put a man (or two) on Minnesota’s top receiver? Justin Jefferson ran free through the secondary and finished with nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Kirk Cousins was barely touched in the pocket, and Dalvin Cook ran for 90 yards on 20 carries.

The Vikings, who opened as home underdogs and turned into a sharp side for bettors, played the role of NFC North favorites.

The result should not come as a big surprise. Rodgers and the Packers treated the preseason as a nuisance and used Week 1 as their dress-rehearsal game for the second year in a row. The situation seemed much worse this time last year after the Packers were embarrassed 38-3 by the Saints in the opener.

Here’s what happened next: Green Bay won and covered its next seven games and eventually finished 13-4 as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Will the Packers repeat recent history?

There are some reasons not to be alarmed. Green Bay was without starting tackle David Bakhtiari and top receiver Allen Lazard because of injuries. On the Packers’ first offensive play, rookie receiver Christian Watson dropped what would have been a 75-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers. In the second quarter, AJ Dillon was stuffed on a fourth-and-goal run up the middle.

The offense was not at full strength, and plenty of chances were squandered. The defense will look much better in Week 2, when Green Bay is a 9.5-point home favorite against the Bears.

The truth is Week 1 is often a lie. There is plenty of time to make up for a bad first impression. The Packers will rebound, but they are not going to win the division by five games as they did last year. I bet on Minnesota and hoped for the best. What I learned is the Vikings, mostly due to a coaching change, are legit this season.

At the risk of occasionally overreacting, here are nine more things I learned from Week 1:

Bill Belichick is losing the benefit of the doubt

  
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By VSiN