Everyone in Las Vegas wants to win. The unfortunate truth is that the majority of gamblers end up as losers, which is what the Las Vegas Raiders were through the season’s first three games. As a result, the pressure was intense on coach Josh McDaniels, quarterback Derek Carr and everyone else in the organization.
Even the beer and hot dog vendors, parking lot attendants and ushers who showed up Sunday at Allegiant Stadium were desperate for a win.
It’s miserable being 0-3. Every football bettor and handicapper has been in that uncomfortable hot spot — after you lose the first three games, that fourth game suddenly becomes the most important thing in life. Winning one game is priority No. 1 and nothing else matters.
Sometimes, it’s a simple handicap. The only 0-3 team in the NFL needed to get rid of that lonely, losing feeling in Week 4. I expected the mission to be accomplished, which is why I made the Raiders my best bet on the entire football card this weekend. At the same time, I also figured it wouldn’t be easy — and it wasn’t.
The Raiders needed some luck — beginning with a 68-yard fumble return for a touchdown by cornerback Amik Robertson late in the first half and ending with Denver running back Mike Boone’s dropped pass with 1:38 remaining — to pull out a 32-23 victory over the Broncos.
Las Vegas was a 2.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, though the line closed -3 at Circa Sports and a few other books (the line actually opened -1.5). It seemed the Raiders might win by two points before Boone, running open near midfield, dropped a perfectly-placed deep ball from Russell Wilson on fourth-and-5.
“Man, that was a sweat,” said handicapper Dan Saley, who made the Raiders -2.5 his best bet in the Circa Friday Football Invitational, the $25,000 weekly contest hosted by VSiN.
Saley, who has a 2-year-old son named Raider, is making a living as a professional bettor and had a significant amount of money on the Raiders. (It’s true that Raider is his son’s name, and credit to his wife for approving it.)
The situational spot dictated a bet on the Raiders, a talented yet winless team returning home after three down-to-the-wire defeats. The Broncos were 2-1, but both of their wins were ugly. Wilson was struggling to move the offense and his new coach, Nathaniel Hackett, appeared clueless.
As it turned out, Wilson played his best game of the season, passing for 237 yards and accounting for three touchdowns, but the Broncos fell short mostly because of running back Melvin Gordon’s fumble and Boone’s dropped pass.
While there were aspects of the matchup that slightly favored the Raiders, their urgency to win was the overriding factor in my handicap. The Raiders prevailed in large part due to Josh Jacobs rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Carr did not throw an interception, wideout Davante Adams made a few big plays and McDaniels’ play calling was improved.
What handicappers learn over the course of time, and many times the hard way, is that teams in must-win situations get in those situations for the wrong reasons. But the Raiders were better than their 0-3 record and proved to be the right side in this spot. That winning bet came with some sweat, as did some other lessons from Week 4.
Breakfast with a London game is a good start to Sunday mornings
There were nine games in the 10 a.m. Pacific time slot Sunday, and there’s no need for that many games at the same time. In my opinion, this would be the ideal weekly schedule: a Thursday night game, a Saturday night game, a London game at 6:30 a.m. Pacific, seven early games, three afternoon games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night doubleheader.
I was in the Circa book for the kickoff of Saints-Vikings, but after getting quickly annoyed by watching Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins and his inability to expand a lead, it was back to the room for a nap. A decision was made to wake up for the fourth quarter.
I bet the Vikings -2.5 and used that as a play in the Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest. The number was good, considering Minnesota was up to -3.5 by Saturday night and -4 or 4.5 by kickoff. The number mattered, of course, as the Vikings won a wild one, 28-25.
It can be argued there should be no point-spread dropoff from Jameis Winston, the Saints’ injured starting quarterback, to backup Andy Dalton. Winston usually throws an interception … or three. Dalton, with his towering wave of red hair, was probably an upgrade in this case. The “Red Rifle” went 20-for-28 passing for 236 yards and one touchdown with no mistakes. New Orleans lost despite having the better quarterback.
There was an energetic crowd in the book. Win or lose — but especially if you have a winner — the London game is a good way to start the day.
The betting public does occasionally beat the bookmakers
The books generally rule, and that was true the first three weeks, but this Sunday was an exception. A successful day for the bettors was fueled by wins and covers by the Eagles and Raiders.
“Every now and then, you got to pay,” South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said. “The handle never goes backward. It stays the same or goes forward. It just keeps getting bigger and bigger. This stuff is just insane.”