Youmans: 10 betting lessons from NFL Week 3
Youmans: 10 betting lessons from NFL Week 3

Three seconds remained on the clock when Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert trotted to the sideline. Herbert had fired a fourth-down pass into the end zone that was ruled incomplete, finally ending his Sunday and any hopes of a miracle comeback.

It would have been the first time in NFL history that a team overcame a 28-point deficit in the final minute. The heroic effort by Herbert was worth a shot, right?

Anytime you can risk the health of your franchise quarterback for no reason, you’ve got to do it. In a 38-10 loss to the Jaguars, the Chargers and their second-year coach, Brandon Staley, showed why they continue to be a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

Herbert, listed as questionable all week with a rib injury, surprisingly started the game and stunningly finished it by leading a 14-play, 64-yard drive that took nearly five minutes off the clock. It was a completely meaningless drive and crazy that he still was on the field.

“It was insane,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “He’s out there chucking the ball around and taking hits in a game they have no chance of winning. If anything is going to hold back that Chargers team, it’s that coach. What the hell are they doing?”

The Chargers are doing what they usually do, which is underachieving (and suffering injuries, with Joey Bosa banged up and left tackle Rashawn Slater now reportedly out for the season). A case can be made Staley is coaching the league’s most talented roster, but some of his decisions are head scratchers. Herbert said he wanted to stay in the game to show he was not quitting on the team. That’s a noble gesture, but that’s also when a coach needs to step in and force his quarterback to take a seat to protect his health.

The Jaguars were posted as 7-point underdogs Friday morning when the line started to crash and moved to 3. It was presumed that Herbert, who was not practicing, wasn’t going to play and backup Chase Daniel would get the start. About an hour before the game, when it was reported Herbert was cleared by doctors and would start, the line moved back to 6.5.

“It was good for us,” Murray said. “We had guys laying 3.5, 4 and 4.5 points when news came out he was playing, and we were taking Chargers money-line action. We ended up doing pretty well on the game.”

The blowout loss was an embarrassment for the Chargers (1-2). The Jaguars stopped an 18-game road losing streak, and the 28-point win in Los Angeles was their largest on the road since 2001.

What we have learned is the AFC West is not the toughest division in the NFL top to bottom. Aside from the Chargers’ mess, the Chiefs (2-1) went down to defeat in Indianapolis, the Broncos (2-1) have a pair of ugly wins and the Raiders are the only 0-3 team in the league.

“I thought the AFC West was going to be incredible,” Murray said. “I thought it was going to be historically good. I was as guilty as anyone.”

I also was apparently wrong about the strength of the AFC West, but I did bet on Jacksonville for the second week in a row — more on that later as we look at nine more things to learn from Week 3:

Russell Wilson is showing no signs of greatness

It was a big deal in March when Denver traded five draft picks (two first-rounders) and three players to Seattle for Wilson. On Sept. 1, the Broncos handed their new quarterback a five-year, $245 million contract extension. Is it too soon to say the team should have some regrets?

After taking four sacks and leading the offense to nine points in an 11-10 victory over the 49ers, Wilson promised “greatness” is coming soon. According to StatsByStats, the Broncos are the only team in the past 30 years to win a game despite having at least eight more three-and-outs than their opponent (Denver had nine and San Francisco had one).

VSiN analyst Michael Lombardi, a former NFL executive, tweeted what NBC commentators Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth were not saying: “Why can’t they say Wilson is playing bad? It’s painful to watch.”

The Broncos rank 30th in the league in scoring at 14.3 points per game.

“Russell Wilson is not the player he was,” Murray said. “But I don’t want to pretend like he can’t rebound.”

The winless Raiders are already in a must-win situation

  
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By VSiN