The New York Yankees (-115) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-105) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Yankees are 56-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 43-49 ATS.

Yankees vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 4-7, 3.42 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 0-1, 4.50 ERA

Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

• Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 22 of his last 45 games (+23.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+22.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

• The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+15.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+9.44 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 away games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 89 games (+25.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 50-44 against the Run Line (+11.3 Units / 10.15% ROI).

• 56-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.24% ROI
• 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.35% ROI
• 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -10.5% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 43-49 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -7.93% ROI).

• 45-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -9.85% ROI
• 44-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -5.15% ROI
• 45-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -3.16% ROI

Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .128 (5-for-39) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (63/210) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has allowed a slugging percentage of .519 (83 Total Bases / 160 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (84/260) against Nestor Cortes this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (5/18) against Shane Baz this month (1 games) — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — ninth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (7/42) against Shane Baz this month (1 games) — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 28% — fifth Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

  
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