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It's a showdown between World Series contenders in the City of Brotherly Love, and we're zeroing in on the battle on the bump with three pitching props from one of our best MLB betting sites.
There are a few high-profile pitching matchups on Monday, but perhaps none are bigger than the one in Philadelphia, the site of our Yankees vs. Phillies prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies ace and Cy Young odds front-runner Zack Wheeler takes on MLB Rookie of the Year odds contender Luis Gil and the New York Yankees, with first pitch from Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Though these teams feature two of the best offenses in baseball – the Yankees lead the majors with a 119 wRC+ and the Phillies own the fifth-best mark at +110 – Wheeler and Gil will silence the bats on Monday.
We've found three tasty +EV pitching props at one of our best spor ts betting sites.
Yankees vs. Phillies player props
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 via Betway) ????
- Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 earned runs (-125 via Betway) ???
- Luis Gil Under 4.5 hits allowed (-105 via Betway) ???
Yankees vs. Phillies expert picks
MLB picks made Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Wheeler burned me on this same bet in his last start, recording two strikeouts in his final inning to finish with seven for the game. However, we're once again seeing value on his Under 6.5 strikeouts against the Yankees, so we're going back to the well.
Based on Wheeler's projections, we're getting roughly 42% positive expected value on these +120 odds th rough Betway, which are among the longest across all of our best sports betting apps.
This line has already moved from an opening number of 7.5, and the Under continues to shorten, so let's take advantage of these plus-money odds before they get closer to the -105 I bet on for Wheeler's last start.
Best odds: +120 via Betway | Implied probability: 45.45%
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We're fading Wheeler's strikeouts total on Monday, but I still think he will have an impressive start at home against the Yankees.
Wheeler has allowed more than two earned runs only once in his last 11 starts, dating back to May 17. In that time, he owns a 2.84 ERA across 63 1/3 innings and allowed just a .195 batting average against.
Based on Wheeler's projections, we're getting roughly 12% +EV on this bet, with Betway once again providing the best odds across all of our best sportsbooks.
These are the shortest odds of all of our picks, as a $10 winning bet returns only $8 in profit. However, if you continue to make strong +EV bets on a daily basis, the profit will add up even if you're playing minus-money odds.
Best odds: -125 via Betway | Implied probability: 55.56%
Gil hit a bit of a rough patch just befor e the All-Star Game, but he's mostly righted the ship in his three starts sandwiching the break.
The rookie has allowed just three earned runs across his last 17 2/3 innings on only 13 hits, and he's propelled himself back up the AL Rookie of the Year oddsboard.
The one thing that could hurt his Rookie of the Year campaign, though, is one of the factors why we like this bet so much.
As the season progresses, Gil's innings could be limited. He threw only 29 2/3 total innings in 2022 and 2023, so the 107 1/3 he's racked up thus far are some cause for concern.
If the Yankees begin to limit Gil to five or fewer innings per appearance, he'll have an even better chance of allowing less than five hits. We're getting a good price on this prop before our sites with the best sportsbooks adjust this market to reflect Gil's potential limits.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%
Yankees vs. Phillies odds & game info
- When: Monday, July 29
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Penn.
- How to watch: YES Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia
- Favorite: Phillies (-140 via Betway)
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