The New York Yankees (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Saturday, October 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Cleveland for this postseason game.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 100-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 87-79 ATS.
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 54.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 36 away games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 31 games at home (+17.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 60 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 147 games (+27.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 147 games (+10.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 71 games at home (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-91 against the Run Line (-20.15 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- 100-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.39% ROI
- 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.78% ROI
- 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.1% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 87-79 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 2.69% ROI).
- 95-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.15 Units / 10.53% ROI
- 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -7.61% ROI
- 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.85% ROI
Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
Opponents are hitless in 20 AB’s against Luis Severino this month (1 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .196 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when ahead in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .191 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of just .048 (21 PA’s) this month (1 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (173/514) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (63/195) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .251 (761 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .197 (127-for-646) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 94th Percentile.