Yankees-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, June 18

After a rainout on Saturday, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will play a day-night doubleheader to close out their series on Sunday. First pitch of the nightcap is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park, and will air exclusively on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Luis Severino (0-1, 6.48 ERA) will look to get back on track for New York, while the Red Sox send promising young righty Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.78) to the mound.

Boston enters as -140 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook tonight, with the Yankees as the +120 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.

Yankees

Out: OF Aaron Judge (toe), OF Harrison Bader (hamstring), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (elbow)

Red Sox

Out: RP Joely Rodriguez (shoulder), RP Richard Bleier (shoulder), RP John Schreiber (shoulder), SS Yu Chang (wrist)

Luis Severino vs. Brayan Bello

Severino looked like his old self after coming off the IL in late May – he allowed just two earned runs in 11.1 innings across his first two starts of the year – but it's been downhill for the righty ever since. He's put up a whopping 10.54 ERA over his three starts in June, coughing up seven homers and a 1.131 OPS over that span. Even more distressingly, Severino's fastball velocity has been noticeably down, getting hit to the tune of a .720 slugging percentage – a huge blow for a guy who historically relies on the pitch around half of the time.

Bello, on the other hand, has been great, allowing two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts – including seven innings of two-run ball just last weekend against these same Yankees. His sinker is producing ground balls at a healthy 57.1% clip, well above league average, while his changeup has emerged as a real weapon to help him neutralize lefties (.212 batting average, 41.5% whiff rate).

Severino is averaging more than five earned runs per start in June, and with the way the Red Sox were swinging the bats on Friday, he could be in for more pain tonight. Boston will likely have to do the majority of the heavy lifting with Bello throwing the ball well on the other side, but I think they're up to the challenge.

Pick: Over 9.5

There's just no way to trust Severino right now until he gets his velocity and command back, especially not with how great Boston's bats looked on Friday night. Bello is rounding into form, and this Yankees lineup lacks the firepower to win a slugfest.

Pick: Red Sox

  
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