Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, and Scoot Henderson are the top names in the NBA's stacked 2023-24 rookie class, and it begs the question: how should we approach betting on their NBA player props at our best NBA betting sites early in the season?
This rookie class is loaded, and I say 'rookie' instead of 'draft' because Chet Holmgren is considered a rookie this season after missing all of last season due to injury. I can confidently say that I think this rookie class will be one of the most impactful in recent memory, and it doesn't hurt when you have a generational talent such as Victor Wembanyama.
If you're watching the NBA preseason, you're seeing several rookies who are going to make immediate impacts and see significant minutes right out of the gate.
What should we expect to see from their player props early on? How can we find edges, a nd what should we be looking for?
Here is a look at some things to consider while betting on player props for NBA rookies early in the season (odds via our best sports betting apps).
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds 2024
NBA Rookie of the Year odds last updated Tuesday, Oct. 17.
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | +120 | +110 | +125 ?? | -110 ?? | +100 |
| Chet Holmgren | +280 | +320 | +300 | +300 | +325 ?? |
| Scoot Henderson | +240 ?? | +370 ?? | +300 | +250 | +300 |
| Brandon Miller | +1600 | +2800 ?? | +1400 ?? | +2500 | +1600 |
| Cam Whitmore | +2200 ?? | +4000 | +4000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Jarace Walker | +2500 | +8000 ?? | +6600 | +2500 | +3300 |
| Sasha Vezenkov | +2800 | +5500 ?? | OTB | +3000 | +2000 ?? |
| Amen Thompson | +2500 | +4000 ?? | +3500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Ausar Thompson | +3000 | +5500 ?? | +5000 | +3000 ?? | +3300 |
| Keyonte George | +3000 | +5500 ?? | +5000 | +2500 ?? | +4000 |
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How to bet NBA player props for rookies
When the NBA season tips off, our best sports betting apps will begin trading player props on rookies such as Wembanyama and Henderson for the very first time. There is a serious lack of information, which can generate a lot of errors from the sportsbooks and edges in the lines for you as a bettor.
Think about the differences between these players that the sportsbooks' trading teams are working with. With LeBron James, they have 20 seasons of data to pull from to help establish lines on his player props for any given matchup. With Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson, not only do they have no NBA data, but th ey also came from Overtime Elite, rather than the NCAA, which makes it even more challenging for the sportsbooks.
Also, I used the Thompson brothers in this example on purpose; I think we could see them having the biggest edges early on. At least with players from NCAA or EuroLeague, you can establish some form of projection based on how other players transitioned.
Sports betting is all about the numbers, but with so few numbers to work with for rookies early in the season, it becomes more of an information-based opportunity and an eye test. Remember, the sportsbooks are trading player props for 300-plus players in the NBA across multiple markets. Their odds are based on numbers; they don't have time to lock in and watch Amen Thompson, but you do.
Early in the NBA season, I would put less emphasis on looking at player props in situations that didn't change over the offseason and put more emphasis on new scenarios. You should be able to find edges in these situations until the sportsbooks adjust. Why go af ter Nikola Jokic, who is in the exact same scenario as last season with the same starting five and the same coach? The sportsbooks' data will be strong.
Lock in on the rookies during those first couple of weeks while the sportsbooks struggle to find where they should be trading.
Since sportsbooks are trading player props on each of these rookies for the very first time, the line movements from game to game are going to be very aggressive. If Luka Doncic has a point total of 30.5 one night and he scores 50, the total could very well be 30.5 the very next game.
If Wembanyama has a total of 19.5 and he scores 30 in the opening game, you could see his point total jump to 24.5 in just one game. It happened last year with Orlando Magic rookie Paolo Banchero. In his very first game against the Detroit Pistons, his point total was 13.5, and he scored 27 points. He started the season with four straight 20-plus point g ames, and his total climbed to 19.5 by his fifth game.
While our best sports betting sites are looking for that sweet spot on where their odds should be trading, we also need to do the same thing. Let's stick with Wembanyama; say he opens at 19.5, and we think that is too low and it should be closer to 22.5, we can play the Over. Now, if he explodes for 30 points and the media hypes up the performance, helping to push that total for the next game to 24.5, we adjust our numbers and we like him at 23.5; stay on this and now bet the Under.
Eventually, sportsbooks will find the proper spot as to where to trade each player, but keep attacking them until they do. It's honestly just a race between you and the sportsbook to find out who can establish where each rookie's props should be trading.
I'll emphasize it again: they have to trade props on 300-plus players across multiple markets, but yo u do not; you can beat them to this race.
Early in the summer, we saw Wembanyama's odds move from +6000 to +2000 to win the Defensive Player of the Year award at our best sportsbooks. I would tread lightly in any futures market that involves rookies. The NBA treats its voting awards as lifetime achievement awards more often than not, and I have a very hard time seeing a rookie winning any award other than the Rookie of the Year.
A rookie has never won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, and the last two rookies to even make the NBA All-Defensive Team were Tim Duncan in 1997-1998 and David Robinson in 1989-1990, and both players were named to the second team.
Wembanyama is +900 at DraftKings to be named to the first team NBA All-Defensive team, but once again, I just don't see rookies earning this type of accolade right away. In the NBA, they make you earn voting awards over multiple seas ons.
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