As we reach the second half of the Major League Baseball season, there are going to be a lot of big favorite roles. Some of the teams that are well off of the pace will trade some of their better players at the August 2 trade deadline and some will continue to use a lot of young players and unproven starters.
A lot of bettors don’t like to lay chalky moneylines, so they’ll opt instead to look at run line betting (-1.5 or + 1.5). So far this season, underdogs are 549-809 and teams that are + 1.5 on the run line are 782-585, meaning that they either won the game or lost by one run.
That means that favorites are 585-782 on the run line, which translates to a 42.79% win percentage and a break-even line of + 134. When you look at stats for teams, the records and cover percentages aren’t enough, you also have to consider the break-even point and the line.
Here are the run line units gained/lost through the first half (based on $100 bet sizes):
Baltimore Orioles + 2078
Los Angeles Dodgers + 1373
New York Mets + 986
Texas Rangers + 873
Philadelphia Phillies + 598