The Chicago White Sox (+170) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The White Sox vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the White Sox are 77-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 70-86 ATS.
White Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
White Sox vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the White Sox and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 73 of his last 109 games (+29.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 111 games (+22.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 60 of his last 111 games (+15.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.15 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 58 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+10.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 49% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.20 Units / 15% ROI)
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 67-89 against the Run Line (-24.5 Units / -13.33% ROI).
- 77-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.35 Units / -11.31% ROI
- 70-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 76-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-22.45 Units / -11.55% ROI).
- 86-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -4.64% ROI
- 72-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.35 Units / -8.96% ROI
- 80-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.55% ROI
Davis Martin: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 30% (6/20) against Davis Martin — tied for 9th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 12th Percentile.
Davis Martin had a first-pitch strike rate of 76% (19/25) — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 93rd Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .310 (9-for-29) against Davis Martin — 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .227 — 15th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .143 (3-for-21) against Davis Martin on the road — tied for 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 94th Percentile.
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (20/75) against Yu Darvish this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/93) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (65-for-416) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (16-for-155) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.