Changeover Systems, which are the previous season’s records and/or statistics that provide insight into the upcoming season, are often extremely predictive. Two years ago, many of the most optimistic systems pointed to the Buccaneers enjoying a breakout season in 2020. All the Bucs did was go on to win their first Super Bowl title. Last year, the systems weren’t quite as definitive, but several angles signaled declines for teams such as the Seahawks and Ravens and improvements for the Raiders and 49ers. The Seahawks and Ravens dropped by five and three wins. The Raiders, despite an in-season coaching change, jumped by two wins and reached the postseason for the first time in five years, while the 49ers improved by four wins and reached the NFC title game.
The NFL is unlike any other league in how quickly teams can rise and fall from year to year. First-to-worst and worst-to-first moves are not unusual, so it benefits bettors to know the traits that lead to teams improving or declining so quickly. What is the typical resume of a team that improves greatly from one season to the next? Those who can find the answer can take advantage of not only futures wagers and season win totals but also point spreads in the early weeks of the season.
Read through my findings and make your own assessments. Then factor in free-agent moves and other personnel changes and head to the betting window.
Systems for teams that had an unusually high or low total of close wins the prior season
— In 2019, the Seahawks’ 10 “close wins” (eight points or less) were the most by any team over the last 30 seasons. In that span, the 33 teams that managed 8+ close wins had an average decline of 3.0 wins the following season.