NFL team-by-team schedules, season win totals and game-by-game lines and totals are now all available for the 2022 season.
At first glance, none of the win totals stands out as an obvious miss by oddsmakers. If there was a miss, it already would have been hit hard and adjusted. With that said, one of the best ways to gain an advantage over the house — on win totals and advanced betting lines — is to use stats from the previous season that are historically reliable in predicting improvement or decline.
In Part 1 of my Changeover Systems, I analyzed the impact of close or blowout wins and losses on the following season. In Part 2, I’ll look at the predictive nature of certain statistics.
The NFL is unlike any other league in how quickly teams can rise and fall from year to year. First-to-worst and worst-to-first moves are not unusual and, in my opinion, are factors in the league being so popular.
These sharp moves from year to year are often triggered by one of my three “Cs”:
— Coaching, either through a personnel change or a change in the way the current coach goes about his business
— Confidence, which can rise or fall quickly due to offseason moves or a string of wins/losses early in the regular season
— Cohesiveness, which can strengthen or weaken with the addition or departure of personnel
Of course, certain statistics from the previous season can illustrate how close a team is to changing the status of those three Cs, which, in turn, can lead to big moves in the standings. You’ll find the key data in this report. Read through the findings, combine them with what we learned in Part 1, add in any coaching and free-agent moves and head to the betting window.
Systems for teams that had a negative turnover differential the previous season
— From 2010-20, 18 teams had a turnover differential of -1.0 per game or worse and did not make the playoffs. Of those 18 teams, 17 improved their win total the following season (the other equaled its win total), with an average improvement of 4.5 wins.
Team affected in 2022: Jacksonville
— From 2009-20, 36 teams had a negative turnover differential and won fewer than six games against the spread. Of that group, 34 improved their ATS winning percentage the following season (by an average of 20%), 30 improved their outright winning percentage (by an average of 20.2%) and 11 qualified for the playoffs (including Dallas and Philadelphia last season).
Teams affected in 2022: Carolina, Jacksonville
— From 2009-20, 15 teams had a negative or even turnover differential yet still won at least 10 games against the spread. Of that group, nine reached the playoffs the following season.
Teams affected in 2022: Detroit, Tennessee
— Since 2009-10, 26 teams improved their winning percentage by at least 34% from one season to the next. Of that group, 22 had a negative or even turnover differential in the prior season. Last year, Cincinnati, Dallas and Philadelphia met that criteria.
Teams potentially affected in 2022: Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Jacksonville, L.A. Chargers, Las Vegas, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington