College Football Betting Recap For Week 5
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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football Week 5 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 6 of college football kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!
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College Football Week 5: Betting Recap
Welcome to my Monday recap of last Saturday's NCAA football action. In this edition, the first section will take a look at six teams whose Power Ratings have changed the most from my opening numbers.
I'll list my top three Power Rating risers and top three Power Rating fallers, and discuss how and why they fell, and what's the outlook moving forward.
After that, I'll take a very brief first look at three games that should generate plenty of interest.
College Football Power Ratings Risers & Fallers
Like many long-time handicappers, I set opening Power Numbers for each team. My formula over four decades has not changed, and I use these numbers as part of my overall handicapping methodology.
There's no right or wrong answer to setting opening Power Numbers, but typically a number is set based on factors such as returning starters, strength of coaching staff, incoming and outgoing transfers, QB efficiency, etc.
My ratings tend to weigh continuity along the OL and DL, and special team prowess and coaching more than others, and I also use past data (metric stat analysis, plus past Power Ratings for each team) as part of my preseason analysis.
I do not go back far in the data when a school has had recent and/or numerous coaching changes, but certainly I can learn something from past history.
Twelve schools have seen their opening Power Rating change 5.5 points or more. Nine schools have seen their Power Rating drop at least five or more points. Here's my list of the very top risers and fallers.
College Football Risers Heading Into Week 6
Texas State (UP 11.5 in my ratings): No team has been more impressive in 2023. The Bobcats hired G.J. Kinne to jump-start their offense and point production has more than doubled.
They currently average over 43 points per game and 5.75 yards per rush attempt. Their starting QB has completed 73% of his passes.
Their top RB is averaging 9.75 yards per carry. They sit at 4-1, including an early win at Baylor. Moving Forward: They have a challenging Sun Belt schedule.
The defense has allowed 20 or more points in every game, so they could be vulnerable to the stronger offensive teams in conference play.
My guess is that everyone has taken notice of what this program has accomplished so far in 2023, and my colleagues likely agree with me on the Power Rating upgrade.
Colorado (UP 7 in my ratings): This was a very difficult team for me to set an initial number to start 2023, and I suspect it was difficult for most people as well.
What do you do when a team turns over its entire roster? As it turned out, my initial rating (66) was dead on to the spread opening week at TCU.
Deion Sanders mania took place after that, and I, like others were scrambling to assign a logical Power Number on a weekly basis. I'm still struggling to find the right number for them, and I suspect that will be the case all season long.
Moving Forward: Colorado has obvious holes along the OL and all throughout the defense that will only be fixed with another massively productive transfer portal cycle after the season.
They've allowed 36 points per game, but the schedule they have faced has been rough, so that needs to be taken into account.
The only thing I would have done differently is recognize that they had a bottom five Head Coach a year ago, and usually that means “addition by subtraction”.
I give them a 50-50 chance at becoming bowl eligible, which would give them the added bonus of 15 or so bowl game practices. With a thin roster, be careful if injuries start to mount.
Jacksonville State (UP 7 in my ratings): It's very hard to make a true Power Rating for teams moving up to the FCS level, so everyone should get a pass in assigning an opening number here.
I went into 2023 knowing they had a good Head Coach in Rich Rodriguez, and tried to factor that into the equation, but even with back testing the data I may have set too low a number.
My formula for adjustments however, has caught up to the true number, as based on this week's game at MTSU, Jacksonville State may be slightly overvalued.
Moving Forward: While the stat sheet looks good, the teams they have faced could create some value fading this team moving forward. I do not expect their run defense to maintain their current level of play, and the kicking game (four of seven) could hurt them down the road.
I'm a big fan of their coach, but let's see if there will be enough regression to be ahead of the curve later this season.