Week 5 college football power ratings and game spreads

I’ve always found that it’s important to exercise patience with college teams. Just think about what you were like between the ages of 18-24. Everybody has a different experience in those college years or while working on a trade, but the same themes are present throughout. You’re learning how to grow up. How to be an adult. How to navigate relationships and live in the real world.

While athletes have different responsibilities and reach stages in their lives at a different pace than most of us, there is still a high level of unpredictability when it comes to college football. As a result, I try to wait until we get a decent sample size to start making some big determinations on teams. There are some that you need to adjust quicker than others because of market conditions, injuries or obvious characteristics, but Week 4 and Week 5 tend to be good spots to realize what teams are and what they aren’t.

The reality is that one-third of the regular season is over for a lot of these teams. Some had early bye weeks, which can be a blessing or a curse, but most of the nation’s programs have played four games. You don’t want to overreact to one game or two games, but patterns are starting to emerge.

What is really striking heading into this week is that most of the lines I’ve had that have been off from the market have been wrong. That will happen as you create your own numbers and have differences of opinion, but sometimes you’ll be right and sometimes you’ll be wrong. For me, I’ve been wrong more often than I’ve been right, so there are some big adjustments this week on some teams that have consistently fallen short of expectation and some that have been much better than I (and many others) anticipated.

Here are my Week 5 Power Ratings:

Here are my Week 5 Power Ratings Adjustments:

Up: West Virginia + 3, UTEP + 2, Baylor + 1.5, Kentucky + 1, Temple + 2, Kent State + 3, Notre Dame + 3.5, Middle Tennessee + 2.5, Penn State + 1.5, Louisville + 1, Wake Forest + 1.5, Florida State + 1.5, Navy + 2, Buffalo + 2, James Madison + 4.5, Duke + 2, Kansas + 5.5, Miami (OH) + 2, Arkansas State + 5, Wyoming + 3, Washington State + 4, Cal + 2.5, Washington + 1.5, Troy + 2.5, South Alabama + 5.5, TCU + 2, Texas Tech + 2, UL Monroe + 2, Rice + 2, Southern Miss + 2, Western Kentucky + 3, UNLV + 4.5, LSU + 2.5, San Jose State + 2, Ball State + 3, New Mexico State + 3

Down: Virginia Tech -3, Georgia State -3, Syracuse -2, Air Force -1.5, Boise State -3, Iowa State -2.5, UMass -2, Georgia -1, North Carolina -2.5, Miami (FL) -5.5, Central Michigan -3.5, South Florida -3, Michigan State -7, Clemson -2, Boston College -4, Rutgers -3, Northwestern -2, BYU -2.5, Hawaii -2.5, Arizona State -2.5, Arizona -2, Bowling Green -3 (QB inj – McDonald), Oklahoma -2, SMU -2, Texas -2, Louisiana -2.5, Houston -1, Memphis -1.5, Missouri -2, Auburn -2, Western Michigan -6, Virginia -2, Tennessee -2, Ohio -1.5, UTSA -2, Colorado State -3, FIU -2.5, Wisconsin -2

Injury*: Tulsa -6 (if QB Brin out), Purdue -6 (if O’Connell out)

Some notes on the biggest adjustments:

Michigan State -7: I still haven’t gone far enough on Sparty, but what a mess Mel Tucker’s team has been thus far. They were a regression candidate coming into the season because of their losses and last year’s resume, but it is shocking how inept this team has been.

Western Michigan -6: Some of this has to do with the play and the injury to Jack Salopek, but the Broncos are just a bad football team at this point. The line against San Jose State continued to grow and I had to make a sizable adjustment to this team. We’ll see if this is enough, but I’m not convinced that it is at this point.

Miami (FL) -5.5: Man, I really thought Miami was going to be good. Mario Cristobal was back at home. Josh Gattis left a good job at Michigan to work with Tyler Van Dyke in Coral Gables. Instead, the Hurricanes are a mess and Van Dyke has regressed as much as any quarterback in the country. This may not be enough of a move on “The U”, but it does address just how bad this team has been.

South Alabama + 5.5: I really, truly felt like I had properly rated the Jaguars coming into the season, but they continue to exceed expectations and have been priced like one of the better Group of Five teams in the market. This is also a touch-and-go situation in that I may not have adjusted them up enough. Kane Wommack will be a sought after candidate this year in the coaching carousel as some teams look to replace guys that took bigger jobs.

Kansas + 5.5: One of the most challenging hurdles to jump over is when a historically bad team is a lot better than past versions. UNLV (+ 4.5) falls into this category as well. What the Jayhawks are doing under Lance Leipold with Jalon Daniels at the helm really, truly stands out across the college football landscape and I have to tip my cap and give props to those teams.

Arkansas State + 5: The Red Wolves have been priced in a favorable light for the last few weeks. I’ve been reluctant to abandon my preseason research on a team that was downright awful last season, but it is clear that the talent has improved with this roster.

James Madison + 4.5: When a team transitions from FCS to FBS, there are a lot of questions. Those teams have fewer scholarships available and are unable to enjoy some of the perks that come with being a Division I-A team. Well, that hasn’t stopped JMU, who gets a big boost for a second straight week.

Here are my lines for Week 5:

Date	Away	Home	My Line
9/29	Utah State	BYU	-21.5
9/30	Tulane	Houston	+ 0.5
	UTSA	Middle Tennessee	+ 5.5
	San Diego State	Boise State	-8
	Washington	UCLA	+ 5
	New Mexico	UNLV	-12.5
10/1	Illinois	Wisconsin	-8.5
	Northwestern	Penn State	-23.5
	Louisville	Boston College	+ 12
	Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina	-7
	Wake Forest	Florida State	-6
	Georgia State	Army	-11
	NC State	Clemson	-12
	Georgia Tech	Pitt	-16
	Michigan State	Maryland	-7
	Virginia	Duke	-2.5
	Virginia Tech	North Carolina	-6.5
	Liberty	Old Dominion	+ 4
	East Carolina	South Florida	+ 6.5
	SMU	UCF	-6
	Northern Illinois	Ball State	+ 3.5
	Purdue	Minnesota	-4
	Texas State	James Madison	-21
	Navy	Air Force	-15
	Oklahoma State	Baylor	+ 2.5
	Iowa State	Kansas	+ 2.5
	South Alabama	Louisiana	+ 5.5
	Temple	Memphis	-16
	Cincinnati	Tulsa* (Brin inj)	+ 16.5
	UMass	Eastern Michigan	-21
	Oregon State	Utah	-8.5
	FIU	New Mexico State	-11
	Cal	Washington State	-6
	Colorado	Arizona	-16
	Arizona State	USC	-24
	Stanford	Oregon	-15.5
	Kentucky	Ole Miss	-3
	Texas Tech	Kansas State	-8.5
	Rutgers	Ohio State	-35
	Texas A&M	Mississippi State	+ 1
	Oklahoma	TCU	+ 4
	Michigan	Iowa	+ 14
	West Virginia	Texas	-10
	LSU	Auburn	+ 6
	Alabama	Arkansas	+ 11.5
	Georgia	Missouri	+ 31
	Central Michigan	Toledo	-11.5
	Miami OH	Buffalo	+ 4
	Fresno State	UConn	+ 20.5
	Bowling Green	Akron	+ 9.5
	Ohio	Kent State	-5.5
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