Week 4 college football power ratings and game spreads

Each college football season presents unique challenges. As bettors, we are left trying to answer several different questions week in and week out. As we head into Week 4, one of the biggest questions centers around how much we want to continue to trust our preseason work. Another question is how we want to evaluate team performances to date.

Take Marshall as one obvious example. The Thundering Herd went on the road and beat Notre Dame in Week 2. They followed that up by losing to Bowling Green in Week 3. Those are two very opposite ends of the spectrum and the Herd are not the only team with results like this.

South Florida lost 50-21 to BYU in Week 1, but has since beaten Howard and taken Florida to the wire. Rutgers is 3-0 with a win by one over Boston College, two over a terrible Temple team and a blowout of Wagner, one of the worst teams in college football. Kansas State rolled over Missouri, but then lost at home to Tulane. Do we give the Wildcats a pass because Oklahoma was on deck or do we punish them for losing to the Green Wave?

These are all weekly questions that have to be answered, but as the inconsistencies become more and more noticeable, we’re left to figure out what’s real, what’s not, what could be and what should be.

Every data point gives us more information, but we eventually run out of data points and may never have a great handle on a team. Other times, a team is precisely what we thought it was. These are meant to be a guide, not serve as gospel. Trying to get ahead of line moves to grab good numbers is the goal. Good numbers won’t always win. Bad numbers won’t always lose. But, we do the best we can to process information and place wagers that we can stand behind.

Here are my power ratings for Week 4:

Here are my Week 4 Power Ratings Adjustments:

Up: Cincinnati + 1, Syracuse + 2, Temple + 2, Indiana + 1, Georgia + 2, Oklahoma + 1.5, Old Dominion + 1.5, South Alabama + 2.5, UNLV + 5.5, Tulane + 2.5, Penn State + 1, Vanderbilt + 2.5, Oregon + 2, Georgia Southern + 5, Troy + 2, Kansas + 4.5, Washington State + 2, Liberty + 3.5, LSU + 1.5, Arkansas State + 3, SMU + 1.5, Washington + 4, Rice + 2, Texas + 2, USC + 2.5, Oregon State + 2, Charlotte + 3, South Florida + 3, Florida State + 2 (Travis inj? -4 if out), Eastern Michigan + 2

Down: Air Force -2, Miami (OH) -3, Texas State -2, South Carolina -3.5, Nebraska -4, Coastal Carolina -2, Virginia -3, UCLA -2.5, Notre Dame -5, North Texas -1.5, Auburn -3, Colorado -4.5, Georgia Tech -2, Houston -3, Alabama -3, Colorado State -2, Mississippi State -2, Akron -2.5, Georgia State -3, Texas Tech -2, FAU -3.5, Maryland -2, Michigan State -5, Louisiana -2, Miami (FL) -3, Missouri -2, Northwestern -2.5, Hawaii -2.5, Fresno State -8 (Haener/Williams inj), San Diego State -2, NC State -3, Arizona State -2, Boston College -2, Utah State -2

Some notes on the big movers:

Fresno State -8: Jake Haener is worth a ton to this team and the line. His high ankle sprain will keep him out for a while and Logan Fife takes over. He has 25 career pass attempts to his name. The Bulldogs also lost star safety Evan Williams, so two leaders will be out for the foreseeable future.

UNLV + 5.5: The Runnin’ Rebels look like a different team to this point and I gave them a big boost in my power ratings. I’m not sure if this is too much or not enough, but after thrashing North Texas when I had the Mean Green favored, an adjustment was absolutely necessary.

Georgia Southern + 5: A little bit of a catch-up here, even though Georgia Southern lost to UAB. The Eagles actually outgained the Blazers in the game (albeit on 20 more plays), but went -3 in turnover margin to lose by 14. It was still another good offensive performance with 6.5 yards per carry on the ground.

Notre Dame -5: Maybe the Fighting Irish figured some things out in the second half, but it was another lackluster performance against a Cal team that barely beat UNLV the week prior. My Notre Dame line is a touch heavy on UNC this week, so I may have overadjusted, but I don’t want to bet on this team anyway.

Michigan State -5: Sparty was viewed as a regression candidate coming into this season and that appears to be happening. Payton Thorne hasn’t looked as effective without Kenneth Walker and the Spartans really played an awful first half against Washington. I was also 6.5 points off on that closing line and I was wrong on both teams, so I made adjustments to both.

Kansas + 4.5: Lance Leipold might be the best coach in the country for what he’s done with the Jayhawks this season. This offense is dynamic, which we haven’t been able to say since Todd Reesing and Mark Mangino were rock stars in Lawrence.

Colorado -4.5: Wyoming beat Air Force. Air Force pummeled Colorado. How bad are the Buffaloes? By the way, if you want to feel old, Josh McCown’s kid went 4-for-7 for 52 yards for Colorado this past Saturday.

Washington + 4: Kalen DeBoer has sold me. The Huskies, who had a top-25 defense last season, now have the offense to match it. I’ve moved UDub up more than a touchdown in my PRs since the start of the season.

Alabama -3: The Crimson Tide let out some frustration on Louisiana Monroe, but only had 13 completed passes in the 63-7 rout. It’s cool that they ran for seven yards per carry, but Jahmyr Gibbs was the leading receiver yet again. That’s not cool.

Here are my Week 4 spreads:

Date	Away	Home	My Line
9/22	West Virginia	Virginia Tech	-3
	Coastal Carolina	Georgia State	+ 3.5
9/23	Virginia	Syracuse	-12.5
	Nevada	Air Force	-25.5
	Boise State	UTEP	+ 16.5
9/24	Baylor	Iowa State	-2.5
	Northern Illinois	Kentucky	-21.5
	Charlotte	South Carolina	-22
	UMass	Temple	-12
	Kent State	Georgia	-47.5
	Notre Dame	North Carolina	-3.5
	Middle Tennessee	Miami (FL)	-26.5
	Maryland	Michigan	-17.5
	UConn	NC State	-35.5
	Central Michigan	Penn State	-22.5
	Georgia Tech	UCF	-19
	South Florida	Louisville	-11.5
	Minnesota	Michigan State	-2.5
	Clemson	Wake Forest	+ 11
	Wisconsin	Ohio State	-18
	Akron	Liberty	-26.5
	Boston College	Florida State	-14.5*
	Florida	Tennessee	-12
	Indiana	Cincinnati	-18.5
	Navy	East Carolina	-16.5
	Ball State	Georgia Southern	-12.5
	Buffalo	Eastern Michigan	-7
	James Madison	App State	-9.5
	Iowa	Rutgers	+ 5.5
	Duke	Kansas	-7
	Miami (OH)	Northwestern	-5
	Arkansas State	Old Dominion	-8
	UCLA	Colorado	+ 22
	Wyoming	BYU	-25
	Hawaii	New Mexico State	-5.5
	Utah	Arizona State	+ 14
	USC	Oregon State	+ 6
	Toledo	San Diego State	+ 1
	Oregon	Washington State	+ 10
	Arizona	Cal	-1.5
	Stanford	Washington	-14
	Marshall	Troy	+ 2.5
	Louisiana Tech	South Alabama	-9
	Bowling Green	Mississippi State	-27
	Kansas State	Oklahoma	-10
	Tulsa	Ole Miss	-20.5
	Vanderbilt	Alabama	-39
	TCU	SMU	-2.5
	Texas	Texas Tech	+ 10.5
	Louisiana	UL Monroe	+ 11
	Arkansas	Texas A&M (N-Arlington)	+ 0.5
	Rice	Houston	-18.5
	North Texas	Memphis	-11.5
	Southern Miss	Tulane	-14
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