Fifteen years ago, in the fall of 2007, college football experienced an extraordinary level of chaos that is unlikely to be repeated often again in our lifetimes. Seven times in the final nine weeks did the No. 2 ranked team lose. Teams ranked in the top five of the AP Poll lost 13 times to unranked opponents. An unranked or lower-ranked opponent defeated the higher ranked team 59 times during the season. It was like a weekly soap opera that you couldn't turn off. Ironically, the current college football darlings, Appalachian State, started the chaos in '07 with a seismic upset of Michigan in Week 1.'
While I'd like to think that maybe we'll see something comparable in 2022 considering the upsets on September 10th, it's just not happening. Through one third of the season, unfortunately, the top three of this year's college football standings seem all too predictable (odds to make the playoff from Caesers Sportsbook):
- Georgia (-450): This roster might be even better than last year's championship team. Their next/only test before the College Football Playoff will be against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
- Alabama (-450): While the Texas game showed some cracks in the armor, it's still quite likely they won't lose a regular season game. And if they do, they'll probably find a way to beat Georgia like last y ear and still make the CFP.
- Ohio State (-280): With the exception of a road trip to Penn State and hosting Michigan the Saturday after Thanksgiving, their schedule is weak. Considering how good their offense is, it's hard to see them not being among the final four teams when it's all said and done.
If I were to play oddsmaker, I'd say the chance of all three of these teams making the College Football Playoff are -150. For two out of three, I'd put the odds at -300. It just seems too easy. The fourth and final spot looks to be where the fun begins. As a betting man, here's how I'd rank the contenders as of today:
- USC (+300): They just look so dominant. Who outside of Utah in the Pac-12 can challenge them?
- Michigan (+375): Their schedule has to be one of the easiest in the nation outside of the Ohio State trip. Lose by a touchdown or less to the Buckeyes, and they might be in if Alabama loses once in the regular season and to Georgia in the SEC title game.
- Clemson (+190): The ACC isn't all that strong and I'm still not buying into the Clemson hype. I think they'll lose one or two games and that won't be enough to get them in over other one loss teams.'
- Oklahoma (+450): The victory over Nebraska was the definition of domination. The Sooners look as crisp as they were under Lincoln Riley but I'd still be surprised if they weren't tripped up once or twice in Big 12 play.
- The field: Including Oklahoma State, Utah, and NC State. I don't think any of them could survive another loss, especially Utah who already has one vs. Florida. Sorry Kentucky and Tennessee fans – your schedules in the SEC East are just too difficult.
In terms of my picks, Week 3 was forgettable. It amounted to a 6-11 record and still no conference parlays hit. With some sneaky matchups on the horizon th is weekend, including the true beginning of conference play, it might be another weekend full of surprises. I'm playing my share of Unders this week. They may not be fun, but they usually are profitable.