Before the season started, I had a pretty aggressive power rating on both the Eagles and Dolphins, calling them three points better than average. Only nine teams had a higher rating, leaving both Miami and Philadelphia tied for 10th. As it turns out, that rating might have been too low.
The Dolphins approached their offensive ceiling in Week 2 as Tua Tagovailoa threw six touchdowns in a comeback win over the Ravens. The Eagles defense proved its Week 1 dud was a fluke by manhandling a Vikings team that looked excelle nt the previous week in a win over the Packers. Both teams still have questions to answer (What happened to the Dolphins defense against Baltimore? What happens when Jalen Hurts has to throw to win?) but right now it's hard to deny that both teams look to be among the best in the league. I only have three teams ahead of them in my power ratings and then a six-team tier that includes Miami and Philadelphia.
What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Saints are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Vikings are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Rams may be another step above and wo rth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Browns are a -1 or -2 team with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Rams should be favored by two points against the Saints on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here.