NFC Betting Advice For Week 18
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 18 betting preview providing possible picks and predictions across critical NFC matchups! What are his takeaways from a betting perspective? Read below now!
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NFC Betting Preview for Week 18
Another NFL season has come and gone. This once-a-year report previews every week 18 game. PART TWO COVERS THE NFC GAMES. Within each preview will be what's at stake, what my metrics say, how I'm approaching handicapping the game, and some tidbits related to player milestones and potential incentives.
NOTE: All listings for the NFC games are in Divisional order, and not in order with regard to the official rotation.
NOTE: Under personal season performance, you will see what season win futures (and in-season futures) I had. Under the prop players section, you will see what I believe are the remaining relevant milestones left for various players. You will NOT see the methodology behind my season win plays, and will NOT see what player and team proposition plays I made prior to the season. If interested, you can always contact me via twitter.
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Cowboys vs Commaners
Situation: Dallas won in controversial fashion last Saturday night, and coupled with Philly's loss to Arizona, the Cowboys now have the inside track at winning the NFC East. They win the East with a win in this game or a loss from Philly. Dallas has the tiebreaker over Detroit for the #2 seed. If they do not win the NFC East then they fall to the #5 seed and travel to play the champion of the NFC South Division. Washington's bags have been packed for weeks, but Dallas is probably the only team that the Commanders would be excited to play and beat, so maybe we get a better effort out of them.
Metrics: Dallas figures to win the turnover battle. Running just 4.1 per carry, the Cowboys have underachieved in this metric. The host history in this series yields no edge. I have no last game or other situations that fit this game.
Decisions: I believe THIS IS THE ONE TEAM Washington would actually care about beating, but Sam Howell is too error-prone for my tastes. That's what kept me off this team last week. If Brissett starts, I may try them, especially if the line reaches 14, however, if I see motivational issues at any time, I would be willing to fade this team, as last game home field is not an edge.
Personal Seasonal Performance: I had no season win plays on either team.
FYI: For prop players, Dak Prescott leads all QB's with 32 touchdown passes. CeeDee Lamb is 66 yards behind Tyreek Hill and if this game is in hand, Dallas may try to pad his stats. RB Pollard needs 65 yards to reach 1,000. DB Bland leads the NFL with eight interceptions and will know before the game what happened with his one pursuer (Stone, Baltimore). For Washington, WR McLaurin needs 54 yards to reach 1,000 and I suspect this team will try to get him to that number.
Eagles vs Giants
Situation: The loss to Arizona wasn't necessarily expected, but did put an exclamation point on the fact that the Eagles never played like a top five team all season long. They will be the 5th overall seed unless they win this road game and Dallas loses their road game at Washington. The Giants are out of the playoffs and have some critical roster decisions to make.
Metrics: Considering the NYG have one of the best turnover ratios, their current record could be even worse than what we see. To blame? How about 83 sacks allowed. What a disaster. The rest of the stat sheet between the two teams shows no edges, meaning Philly's numbers are below seasonal expectations. The NYG hold two very strong last game indicators, but as it turns out, Philly matches it this year with a team specific positive indicator based on resent results, plus a lower-than-expected line.
Decisions: I wanted and might still want to take the NYG, but that requires the line to be higher. I'll revisit closer to kickoff.
Personal Seasonal Performance: I easily won my UNDER season win total on the Giants.
FYI: For prop players, RB Barkley needs 84 yards to reach 1,000 yards rushing. That might be doable. QB Hurts needs 197 yards to reach 4,000 passing. Depending on this score, and the Dallas score, we'll see what is possible.
Vikings vs Lions
Situation: Home to the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings inserted a new QB and promptly turned in another poor performance, falling 33-10. Now they need plenty of help to make the playoffs. They need to win this game, plus hope for losses from Green Bay, Seattle, and either a Tampa loss or a New Orleans loss. As things turned out last week, Detroit was just a two-point conversion away from a shot at the #1 overall seed. The Lions would need to win this game and hope both Dallas and Philly are upset in order to move up to the 2nd overall seed.
Metrics: QB Mullins gave away the first game just two weeks ago with a four-interception performance. Turnovers have destroyed this team all season long, and it's not even close as compared to any other NFL team. Defensive coordinator Flores has done a pretty good job, but that 70% pass defense is the worst in the NFL. I do not have “elite” indicators for this matchup, but what I have favors the Lions (three small to medium indicators).
Decisions: Clearly the Lions want to erase the bad taste in their mouth from last week. They will weigh that with a determination as to how long to play their starters with the likely assumption that one of Philly or Dallas will win on Sunday. That's likely why the line has dropped to -3. With equal turnovers, Minny was the better team two weeks ago, but I'm thinking of either laying the -3 (value), or just playing the Lions in the first half.
Personal Seasonal Performance: Last week's results clinched my Minnesota UNDER season win ticket. I also cashed a couple of in-season NFC North tickets on the Lion's (both at +100 odds).