Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
I was having a discussion on Twitter last Friday evening with professional bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris) and Circa Sports operations manager Jeffrey Benson (@JeffreyBenson12) about the lookahead line in this game. Jeff was actually posting what the line would be in a potential playoff matchup between these teams, Washington at San Francisco, and said he would hang 49ers -7.25, meaning -7 with juice. I responded that my numbers came to 49ers -11 and would probably adjust to -9 with Brock Purdy as the starter. Cris stated that his calculations came to Niners -11.77 and -12.27.
The general feeling between the three of us was that the true number was probably between 9 and 12 but that nobody would bet San Francisco at that price, so it makes sense for the bookmaker to be post something closer to 7.5.
Of course we have this actual matchup here in Week 16. It was a valuable exchange with two people I have great respect for in the industry and I was glad that my numbers were in line with Cris'. The lookahead line in this game was 49ers -6.5 and it opened at 7 earlier this week. San Francisco is on extra rest, having played last Thursday.
What is already the best defense in the league in many people's eyes looks to get a boost with the return of defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw. He's a force inside and will only make Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa even more dangerous. He has not yet been activated off IR but is expected to begin practicing this week. My guess is that he will miss Saturday's game, but I believe he has a good chance to play next week in Las Vegas against the Raiders.