Washington Commanders at New York Giants
After starting 1-4, the Commanders have won six of their last seven games to get to 7-5 on the season. It has been trending in the other direction for the Giants, who got out to a 6-1 start but have since gone 1-3. In the Giants’ favor, they do come into this game on extra rest, having played on Thanksgiving Day. Washington was pretty lucky on Sunday to not only escape with a win ATS but to win the game, period. I liked the Falcons last week, catching four points as I felt the stock on the Commanders was starting to get a little high. It is possibly even higher now. Meanwhile, the Giants’ stock continues to drop after they were beaten pretty soundly by the Cowboys last Thursday.
While this looks like a buy-low spot on New York and possibly a sell-high position with Washington, the Giants are very hamstrung by injuries, especially on their offensive line. And they will be facing an excellent Commanders defensive line, which could be getting Chase Young back for this game. Las Vegas product and former San Diego State Aztecs tight end Daniel Bellinger could return for the Giants this week, which would be a big lift for this very limited offense.
It makes sense that my lookahead numbers came to Giants -3 and now with Washington adding another win and New York a loss, this week's crunch spits out Giants favored by a half-point. Washington opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and that is now up to 2.5. It looks like perfect teaser material to take the Giants up to an +8.5-point home underdog. The Giants have played in very close games for most of the season, but their last four have been decided by margins of 14, 8, 13 and 8. Over its last 8 games, Washington finals have been decided by 5.6 points on average. I don't think either of these teams has real firepower to blow one another out — so again, teasing the Giants up does appear to have a good chance of cashing.
The injuries certainly are of concern in backing New York, but the extra rest is a big advantage and quarterback Daniel Jones is at his best against Washington, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9-3. The Giants teased up to +8.5 is my initial lean on the game.