Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season has arrived, and with it we have 3 NFL best bets to deliver courtesy of our Pickswise NFL handicappers. We continue to be on a hot run this season, with our experts currently up +49.3 units on their side-and-total NFL picks for every game. We also got this week started right as we'cashed our Bengals vs Ravens Same Game Parlay at +982 odds! Now we’re turning our attent ion to the rest of the slate, so let’s get into our experts’ best bets and help you bet better on this week’s NFL games.
Chris Farley: Cleveland Browns +1.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-105)
For weeks on end, we've told bettors to wait to fade Pittsburgh. Regardless of how pedestrian their offense looks and the data that supports that claim (26th in points per game, 28th in yards per game), the Steelers find ways to win. Depending on their opponent, it's often the “right choice” to wager on Mike Tomlin's grungy team than it is to bet against them. The key phrase there is .'
Cleveland's win at Baltimore last week is what we call a firestarter. Momentum is a real thing- in psychology, it's described as “added or gained psychological power which changes interpersonal perceptions and influences an individual's mental and physical performance.” The Browns overcame a lot of misfortune to earn a W last Sunday- terrible penalties that gave the Ravens first downs (5) and additional chances to score, as well as egregious turnovers like a pick-six on their opening drive. But Myles Garrett, Deshaun Watson, and the Browns simply didn't give up. Down 31-17 entering the fourth quarter, Cleveland scored 16 unanswered points in the game's final 14 minutes to earn one of the most entertaining comeback victories of the NFL season. Watson played one of his best games as a Brown, showing elite accuracy and arm strength in the most pressing moments. Unfortunately, we learned this week that Watson is having season-endi ng surgery on his shoulder, and therefore will not play on Sunday. Dorian Thompson-Robinson hardly provides the same confidence, but we still love the Browns' momentum.
The Browns return home with a very winnable schedule and the fate of their success in the AFC North in their own hands. The Steelers, who have won four of their last five contests, are due to regress. That's especially true for their offense, coming off a big day on the ground (205 total rushing yards). They also already beat the Browns in Pittsburgh, so this is a revenge game for the surging home team. It's Browns or nothing in this spot.'