There are plenty of great Major League Baseball starting pitchers taking the mound Wednesday, from Tarik Skubal to Shohei Ohtani.
Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’m targeting two aces from the Marlins and Padres for the highest-value props.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
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| Pirates @ Marlins | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Pablo Lopez has been struggling. Once considered a Cy Young contender, the Miami righty pitched to a 4.89 ERA in a six-game stretch between June 4 and July 3.
His strikeout and whiff numbers didn’t drop drastically, but Lopez did see a slight decline in those numbers as well. However, it’s mostly his poor performance that has made him finish with five or fewer strikeouts in seven of his last 10 games.
Yet, Lopez looked more like himself against the Mets five days ago. I’m hoping he’ll start to settle down and that changeup will continue to force whiffs at a 40% rate.
This poor stretch recently has also been almost entirely on the road. Seven of Lopez’s last nine starts have come away from LoanDepot Park, and his home-away splits should be taken into consideration.
- 2022 Lopez at home: 41 IP, 2.41 ERA, .264 wOBA, 3.27 xFIP, 9.44 K/9
- 2022 Lopez on the road:'58 IP, 3.26 ERA, .311 wOBA, 3.64 xFIP,'8.53 K/9
In fact, Lopez has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his seven home starts this season, good for a 71% hit rate that implies -250 odds to the over.
Lopez should also have a good matchup against this Pirates lineup. The Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate against RHPs on the season (25.4%) and the highest rate on the road (27.9%) overall.