Phoenix Suns star Bradley Beal is expected to return Tuesday against the Golden State Warriors, and we're diving into the best Warriors vs. Suns NBA player props based on the best NBA odds in the All-Star guard's first game back.
It's been a tough start to the “Big Three” era for the Phoenix Suns, who have still yet to see Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal take the court at the same time in the 2023-24 NBA season.
That won't change Tuesday with Durant (ankle) ruled out, but Beal is set to make his first start since Nov. 12 as the Suns host the Golden State Warriors in a battle of Western Conference contenders.
Even with Durant out, we'll see a new-look lineup for the Suns on Tuesday, and that spells potential value in the player props market.
To complement our Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA player props, here ar e our best Warriors vs. Suns NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Warriors vs. Suns NBA player props
It took a while for our best sportsbooks to list odds on Beal's props on Tuesday, which didn't come until after the team ruled out Durant. His absence is a key reason why we love this wager.
With Durant sidelined, coach Frank Vogel is expected to stagger minutes for Beal and Booker to allow one of them to initiate the offense at all times. That would mean Beal assuming a lead guard role – particularly with the second unit – more than we'd expect with Durant on the floor.
Beal should be up for the task. While he averaged just 3.7 assists in three games in November, the three-time All-Star averaged six assists in his final two years in Washington, and he finished with five-plus dimes in 34 of his 50 starts (68%) last season.
In his last game on Nov. 12, Beal assisted on his team's first two buckets of the game and finished with five assists total. I'd be surprised if he doesn't hit that mark (at least) in his return.
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With Beal returning Tuesday, his teammates will also see their totals impacted within this new-look lineup. And no one should be a bigger beneficiary than the Suns' primary big man.
One of the biggest changes for Phoenix with this new lineup is rim pressure. Beal has attempted more than 30% of his shots at the rim over the last five years – well above this year's marks for Booker (22%) and Durant (20%) – which is key for a team that ranks below average in shots near the hoop.
That's a boon for Nurkic, who leads the Suns in r ebounds per game (9.1) and ranks 12th in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (11.6%). Case in point: Nurkic finished with a season-high 17 rebounds in Beal's first game on Nov. 8, and he averaged 11.3 rebounds in Beal's brief three-game run.
While Nurkic has fallen short of this total in four straight games, he's cleared it twice in three games without Durant – and his odds moved sharply once Durant was declared out, with nearly all of our best sports betting apps trading this prop at 10.5.
The lone exception is FanDuel, which is still offering this prop at 9.5 with a shorter price on the Over, while the best odds for Over 10.5 is +105 via DraftKings. This would be a four-star play at a better price, but regardless, Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities to clean the glass on Tuesday.
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Much like betting on the first touchdown scorer in the NFL, this bet is typically more about entertainment and luck than actual skill, which makes it a volatile market to bet into.
That said, there's some clear logic to this wager in Beal's first game back – and we certainly don't mind the generous price.
In his last game out, Beal assisted on the game's first two buckets – both to Durant, who is out Tuesday – and scored his team's next two field goals with two attempts in between. The game before, he took Phoenix's first attempt and scored three of its first four baskets from the floor.
Beal said earlier this week that he could have played sooner but waited to return from his lingering back issues until he was fully healthy. I'd expect him to come out firing in his nationally-televised return, especially with Durant sidelined.
Warriors-Suns NBA player props made 12/12/2023 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
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