VSiN Analytics Report for Week 17
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 17. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Now, here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems and their updated performance records:
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings like a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, LAS VEGAS, JACKSONVILLE, LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’22 season, when the majority handle and the number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) & 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) & 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ENGLAND
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, CINCINNATI
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-CHI, LAC-DEN
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-DAL, NE-BUF, MIA-BAL, TEN-HOU, CAR-JAX, LAR-NYG, ARI-PHI, PIT-SEA, GB-MIN
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEN-HOU, CAR-JAX, LAR-NYG, PIT-SEA
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coach Sean Payton (Denver).
Rookie Coach Systems
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 125-141-7 ATS (47%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Re-Tread Coach Systems
– Like the rookie HCs, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games – 82-123-1 ATS (40%).
System Match: FADE DENVER
– Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013, they’ve gone 90-67 SU but just 50-94-13 ATS, for 34.7%!
System Match: FADE DENVER
– Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, re-tread coaches have gone just 58-42 SU and 30-64-6 ATS (31.9%) in their first seasons over the last decade.
System Match: FADE DENVER
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 97-136-9 ATS (41.6%).
System Match: FADE DENVER
– Re-tread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 27-22-3 ATS (55.1%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the rematch.
System Match: FADE DENVER
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 157-291-2 SU (35%) and 205-241-4 ATS (46%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE HOUSTON, FADE LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 113-116-3 ATS (49.3%) in home games but just 104-128 ATS (44.8%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 32-92 SU and 51-71-2 ATS (41.8%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of seven points or more have won just 27 games, going 29-169 SU & 81-108-9 ATS (42.9%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks are solid bets in the larger favorite role
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks are 70-19 SU and 51-37-1 ATS (58%) when favored by more than a field goal.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success level against division, conference, and nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 73-94-1 ATS (43.7%). As divisional dogs of five points or more, rookie QBs are just 9-65 SU and 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) in that span.
System Match: *TEN-HOU is a matchup this week*
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 44-91-1 SU and 59-75-2 ATS (44%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
HUGE DIVISIONAL UPSETS
- Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%) record since 2015
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-7 vs CIN)
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
- NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 14-15 SU but 6-22-1 ATS (21.4%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5 at WAS)
- NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 3-15 SU and 2-16 ATS (11.1%) in their last 18 tries.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5 at WAS)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday Night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 31-31 SU and 38-22-2 ATS (63.3%) in the last 62.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 36-25 SU and 35-24-2 ATS (59.3%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
- NFL Home Favorites of seven points or more are on a 29-2 SU and 20-9-2 ATS (69%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
Good TNF Team Trends
Cleveland 5 straight wins, 3-1-1 ATS
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
Bad TNF Team Trends
NY Jets 0-5 SU and ATS in the last five, allowed 32.4 PPG
System Match: FADE NY JETS ATS
Over the total TNF Team Trends
NY Jets 5-2 Over in last seven
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYJ-CLE (o/u at 35)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 14-11 SU and 9-16 ATS (36%) in their last 25 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA ATS
- Home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning an 18-10 SU and 17-10-1 ATS (63%) record since 2019.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA ATS
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 9-20 SU and ATS (31%) in their last 29 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA ATS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming ogg a loss in their last games are just 12-17 SU and 11-17-1 ATS (39.3%) in their last 29, but those coming off a win are on a current 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) surge.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA ATS
Over the total SNF Team Trends
Green Bay 14-6 Over the total since 2016
System Match: PLAY OVER in GB-MIN (o/u at 46)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME Team Trends
Dallas 12-3 ATS in the last 15
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
Green Bay 14-7 SU and 15-6 ATS in the last 21
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
Bad PRIMETIME Team Trends
NY Jets 1-11 SU while going 3-9 ATS
System Match: FADE NY JETS ATS
Under the total PRIMETIME Team Trends
Cleveland 16-6-1 primetime Under run
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYJ-CLE (o/u at 35)
Minnesota 21-10 Under primetime record since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in GB-MIN (o/u at 46)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 39-12 SU and 31-18-2 ATS (63.3%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-7 vs CIN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion and then being favored in the latter games, are 86-18 SU and 69-35 ATS (66.3%) in the follow-up game when favored by three points or more.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-13 vs NE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 14-37 SU and 11-36-4 ATS (23.4%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (-4.5 at NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 19-24 SU but 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) in their last 43 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE (-6.5 vs CAR)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 52-32 SU but 32-49-3 ATS (39.5%) when favored by three points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-6.5 vs CAR)
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– New Orleans: 12-3 SU and ATS run
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 at TB)
– Tennessee: 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS surge
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+5 at HOU)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Denver: 4-15 SU and 7-12 ATS L19 tries
System Match: FADE DENVER (-3.5 vs. LAC)
– Minnesota current 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS slide
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs. GB)
Best NFL HOME rematch teams lately
– Buffalo: 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS in the last 19 home rematches, scoring 30.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-13 vs NE)
Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
– New Orleans: 15-1 ATS in the last 16 on road
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 at TB)
Best NFL REVENGE teams lately
– New Orleans: 11-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 at TB)
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
– Green Bay: 3-7 SU and ATS in the last 10 revenge attempts
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN)
Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– Denver: 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS in the last 12 facing team in beat last
System Match: FADE DENVER (-3.5 vs LAC)
High-scoring rematch teams
– Minnesota: Over in 10 of the last 12 rematch games
System Match: PLAY OVER in GB-MIN (o/u at 46)
Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and third) around trends
– Buffalo: 11-2 ATS streak vs. Miami and New England since 12/31/17
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-13 vs. NE)
Rematch Betting Systems
1) Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 40-14 SU and 35-19 ATS (64.8%) in the rematch contest
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-13 vs NE)
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +3.5 (+3.2), 2. NEW ENGLAND +13 (+1.0), 3(tie). TENNESSEE +5 (+0.9) and ARIZONA +11 (+0.9), 5. WASHINGTON +13 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -3.5 (+2.6), 2. DENVER -3.5 (+2.4), 3. SEATTLE -3.5 (+1.8), 4. JACKSONVILLE -6.5 (+1.6), 5. KANSAS CITY -7 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +3.5 (+3.4), 2. TENNESSEE +5 (+1.8), 3. ARIZONA +11 (+1.6), 4(tie). ATLANTA +3 (+0.5) and NY GIANTS +4.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -13 (+2.6), 2. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+2.0), 3. SAN FRANCISCO -13 (+1.9), 4. JACKSONVILLE -6.5 (+1.3), 5. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DEN OVER 37.5 (+3.2), 2. NYJ-CLE OVER 35 (+3.1), 3. CAR-JAX OVER 38 (+2.3), 4. ATL-CHI OVER 38 (+1.4), 5. MIA-BAL OVER 47 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-HOU UNDER 43.5 (-1.5), 2(tie). ARI-PHI UNDER 48.5 (-1.3) and PIT-SEA UNDER 41.5 (-1.3), 4(tie). LAR-NYG UNDER 45 (-1.2) and GB-MIN UNDER 46 (-1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +3.5 (+2.8), 2(tie). WASHINGTON +13 (+1.4) and NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+1.4), 4(tie). ATLANTA +3 (+1.2) and NEW ENGLAND +13 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS -4.5 (+4.0), 2. KANSAS CITY -7 (+2.8), 3. JACKSONVILLE -6.5 (+1.7), 4(tie). SEATTLE -3.5 (+0.7) and DENVER -3.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DEN OVER 37.5 (+4.0), 2. CAR-JAX OVER 38 (+2.1), 3. MIA-BAL OVER 47 (+1.2), 4. ATL-CHI OVER 38 (+1.1), 5. SF-WAS OVER 49.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-MIN UNDER 46 (-4.1), 2. LAR-NYG UNDER 45 (-2.3), 3. TEN-HOU UNDER 43.5 (-1.6), 4. NE-BUF UNDER 40.5 (-1.2), 5. DET-DAL UNDER 53.5 (-0.9)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 22-22 SU but 30-14 ATS (68.2%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2.3, Team average PF: 23.8
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+6 at DAL)
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 18-1 SU & 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.3, Team average PF: 31.2
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs ARI)
* Derek Carr (NO) is 17-29 SU and 14-30-2 ATS (31.8%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.7, Team average PF: 20.1
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+3 at TB)
* Justin Fields (CHI) is 6-23 SU and 9-18-2 ATS (33.3%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.4, Team average PF: 19.3
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-3 vs ATL)
* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 3-11 SU & ATS (21.4%) in non-conference games. The average line was +3.7, Team average PF: 16.7
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs CAR)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 24-19 ATS (55.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 20-16 ATS (55.6%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+11 at PHI)
* BALTIMORE is 45-55 ATS (45%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-3 vs MIA)
* CHICAGO is 27-40 ATS (40.3%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-3 vs ATL)
* CINCINNATI is 44-24 ATS (64.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 49-28 ATS (63.6%) in road/neutral games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 23-12 ATS (65.7%) as an underdog since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+7 at KC)
* CLEVELAND is 29-39 ATS (42.6%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 18-28 ATS (39.1%) as a favorite since 2017
Systems Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs NYJ)
* DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (85.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 27-17 ATS (61.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6 vs DET)
* DENVER is 15-33 ATS (31.3%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 90-56 UNDER the total (61.6%) since 2015
System Match: FADE DENVER (-3 vs LAC), also PLAY UNDER in LAC-DEN (o/u at 37.5)
* DETROIT is 33-15 ATS (68.8%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+6 at DAL)
* GREEN BAY is 18-10 ATS (64.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) as an underdog since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN)
* JACKSONVILLE is 23-37 ATS (38.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 17-24 ATS (41.5%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 9-33 ATS (21.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* JACKSONVILLE is 30-20 UNDER the total (60%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs CAR), also PLAY UNDER in CAR-JAX (o/u at 38)
* LA CHARGERS are 14-11 ATS (56%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (+3 at DEN)
* LA RAMS are 41-29 UNDER the total (58.6%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-NYG (o/u at 43.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 31-45 ATS (40.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+3.5 at IND)
* MIAMI is 48-32 ATS (60%) as an underdog since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 at BAL)
* MINNESOTA is 30-21 ATS (58.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 12-21 ATS (36.4%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 48-35 OVER the total (57.8%) since 2019
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs GB), also PLAY OVER in GB-MIN (o/u at 46)
* NEW ENGLAND is 9-17 ATS (34.6%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+12 at BUF)
* NEW ORLEANS is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 32-18 ATS (64%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+3 at TB)
* NY GIANTS are 43-21 UNDER the total (67.2%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-NYG (o/u at 43.5)
* NY JETS are 10-23 ATS (30.3%) when coming off SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 17-38 ATS (30.9%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (+7.5 at CLE)
* PITTSBURGH is 91-60 UNDER the total (60.3%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 29-16 ATS (64.4%) as an underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+3.5 at SEA), also PLAY UNDER in PIT-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) when coming off SU win since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5 at WAS)
* SEATTLE is 36-47 ATS (43.4%) when coming off SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 20-13 ATS (60.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-3.5 vs PIT)
* TAMPA BAY is 33-45 ATS (42.3%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 30-44 ATS (40.5%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-3 vs NO)
* TENNESSEE is 22-18 ATS (55%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+4.5 at HOU)
* WASHINGTON is 16-30 ATS (34.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 37-27 UNDER the total (57.8%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+13.5 vs SF), also PLAY UNDER in SF-WAS (o/u at 49.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(101) NY JETS at (102) CLEVELAND
* NY JETS are on a 7-2 ATS run versus Cleveland
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS
(103) DETROIT at (104) DALLAS
* Over the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the DET-DAL series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(119) ARIZONA at (120) PHILADELPHIA
* ARIZONA is on an 8-1 ATS surge versus Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS
(109) ATLANTA at (110) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five hosting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(115) CAROLINA at (116) JACKSONVILLE
* Favorites have won the last four ATS in the CAR-JAC series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS
(127) CINCINNATI at (128) KANSAS CITY
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the CIN-KC series in Kansas City
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(131) GREEN BAY at (132) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 hosting Green Bay
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(129) LA CHARGERS at (130) DENVER
* Underdogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four of the LAC-DEN rivalry in Denver
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS