The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, January 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, ATLANTA, CHICAGO, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: It was a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, UTAH
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, SAN ANTONIO, SACRAMENTO, OKLAHOMA CITY, HOUSTON, LA CLIPPERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): LA CLIPPERS ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-DET, SAC-CHA, TOR-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WSH-IND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-IND, PHI-ATL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 35-17 SU and 29-22-1 ATS (56.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/10: BOSTON vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs MIN)
1/10: LA CLIPPERS vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-10 vs TOR)
* OVER the total was 69-40 (63.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/10: Over the total in BOSTON-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
1/10: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)
* Over the total was 61-42 (59.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/10: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 41-14 SU and 33-19 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
1/10: GOLDEN STATE vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 vs. NOP)
* INDIANA is 19-14 SU and 23-9 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
1/10: INDIANA vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-7.5 vs WSH)
* INDIANA is 56-31 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
1/10: Over the total in INDIANA-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 252.5)
* MINNESOTA is 16-4 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
1/10: Over the total in BOSTON-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 112-29 SU and 93-48 ATS (66%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs MIN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 78-47 SU and 75-47-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-3 at DET)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 57-18 SU and 51-23-1 ATS (68.9%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-3 at DET)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 109-23 SU but just 51-79-2 ATS (39.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-10 vs TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 67-55 (54.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 120-97 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-117 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in TOR-LAC (o/u at 237.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 206-210 SU and 177-229-10 ATS (43.6%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at MIA), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-10 vs TOR)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 182-203 SU and 165-218-2 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at MIA), FADE NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at GSW), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-10 vs TOR)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 198-193 SU but 173-206-12 ATS (45.6%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE UTAH (+7 vs DEN)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 64-64 SU and 55-68-5 ATS (44.7%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 28-8 SU and 26-8-2 ATS (76.5%) in their last 36 tries.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-3 at DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 49-43 SU and 52-38-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 at IND)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +9 (+3.6), 2. DETROIT +3 (+2.8), 3. UTAH +7 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+1.8), 2. LA CLIPPERS -10 (+1.5), 3. INDIANA -7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +3 (+3.2), 2. MINNESOTA +9 (+2.8), 3. MIAMI +4.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+2.6), 2. INDIANA -7.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-IND OVER 252.5 (+3.6), 2. SAC-CHA OVER 230.5 (+1.5), 3. MIN-BOS OVER 223 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-CHI UNDER 216.5 (+4.5), 2. DEN-UTA UNDER 237.5 (-1.1), 3. SAS-DET UNDER 238 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +9 (+3.6), 2. DETROIT +3 (+1.8), 3. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -7.5 (+0.8), 2. CHICAGO -4 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-ATL OVER 244 (+2.3), 2. SAC-CHA OVER 230.5 (+2.2), 3. SAS-DET OVER 238 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-CHI UNDER 216.5 (-3.4), 2. TOR-LAC UNDER 237.5 (-2.3), 3. DEN-UTA UNDER 237.5 (-1.8)
Top Daily H2h Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(549) SAN ANTONIO at (550) DETROIT
* Home teams are on an 8-1 ATS surge in the SAN-DET series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(551) WASHINGTON at (552) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine hosting Washington
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS